Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset
Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset
3 weeks ago, the Fed voted to cut rates by 0.50%. Traders had rushed to get in position for that, so a small "reset" followed as the market waited for the most important vote. The vote in question was on whether or not the market was ahead of itself in mid September and it was cast by last Friday's jobs report. When marquis reports coincide with big changes in Fed policy, and when Fed policy changes had a lot to do with the past two examples of the marquis report in question, and when the marquis report not only offers a completely different message from the past two, but also revises the past two in a way that casts doubt on the extent of the Fed's decision, you get exactly what we've seen since Friday morning. It's a firm rejection of mid-September's rates and a wake-up call that rates can still move higher, but not the same sort of watershed moment seen in 2013 before the taper tantrum. Barring unforeseen exogenous shocks, we'll now need another weak jobs report (or two or three) before re-challenging the mid-September floor.
slightly weaker overnight with additional losses into 10am and modest bounce since then. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yre up 1bp at 4.04
Bonds Are Undergoing a Reset
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tuesday, Oct 08 | |||||
3:00AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
6:00AM | Sep NFIB Business Optimism Index | Sep | 91.5 | 91.7 | 91.2 |
8:30AM | Aug Imports | Aug | $342.2B | $345.4B | |
8:30AM | Aug Exports | Aug | $271.8B | $266.5B | |
8:30AM | Aug Trade Gap (bl) | Aug | $-70.4B | $-70.6B | $-78.8B |
8:55AM | Oct/05 Redbook yy (%) | Oct/05 | 5.4% | 5.3% | |
10:10AM | Oct IBD economic optimism | Oct | 46.9 | 47.2 | 46.1 |
11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 80 | |||
11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.720% | 4.410% | ||
12:45PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
1:00PM | 3-Year Note Auction | 3.440% | |||
1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
4:00PM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
4:30PM | Oct/04 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Oct/04 | 1.95M | -1.5M | |
7:30PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
Wednesday, Oct 09 | |||||
7:00AM | Oct/04 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Oct/04 | 6.14% | ||
7:00AM | Oct/04 MBA Mortgage Applications | Oct/04 | -1.3% | ||
7:00AM | Oct/04 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/04 | 149.3 | ||
7:00AM | Oct/04 MBA Refi Index | Oct/04 | 1099.5 | ||
7:00AM | Oct/04 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/04 | 292.3 | ||
9:15AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
10:00AM | Aug Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Aug | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
10:30AM | Oct/04 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Oct/04 | -0.662M | ||
10:30AM | Oct/04 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Oct/04 | -0.277M | ||
10:30AM | Oct/04 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Oct/04 | -1.5M | 1.119M | |
10:30AM | Oct/04 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Oct/04 | -0.235M | ||
10:30AM | Oct/04 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Oct/04 | -2.3M | -1.284M | |
10:30AM | Oct/04 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/04 | 1.9M | 3.889M | |
10:30AM | Oct/04 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Oct/04 | -0.104M | ||
10:30AM | Oct/04 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Oct/04 | 0.84M | ||
10:30AM | Oct/04 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Oct/04 | 0.191M | ||
10:30AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
10:30AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
10:45AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
11:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.410% | |||
12:15PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
12:30PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 3.648% | |||
2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
5:00PM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
6:00PM | Fed Daly Speech |