Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset

Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset

3 weeks ago, the Fed voted to cut rates by 0.50%.  Traders had rushed to get in position for that, so a small "reset" followed as the market waited for the most important vote.  The vote in question was on whether or not the market was ahead of itself in mid September and it was cast by last Friday's jobs report.  When marquis reports coincide with big changes in Fed policy, and when Fed policy changes had a lot to do with the past two examples of the marquis report in question, and when the marquis report not only offers a completely different message from the past two, but also revises the past two in a way that casts doubt on the extent of the Fed's decision, you get exactly what we've seen since Friday morning.  It's a firm rejection of mid-September's rates and a wake-up call that rates can still move higher, but not the same sort of watershed moment seen in 2013 before the taper tantrum.  Barring unforeseen exogenous shocks, we'll now need another weak jobs report (or two or three) before re-challenging the mid-September floor.

Market Movement Recap
10:11 AM

slightly weaker overnight with additional losses into 10am and modest bounce since then.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yre up 1bp at 4.04

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Are Undergoing a Reset

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.79 -0.12 10YR 4.044% +0.015% 10/8/2024 10:17AM EST
Here's a repeat of the lock/float considerations posted on Friday after the jobs report: "Friday's strong jobs report and resulting bond market rout change the calculus for rate expectations until further notice. Traders now need new data to reinvigorate the case for an economy that's weakening enough to support the Fed's expected case of rate cuts. As big as Friday's sell-off was, it still makes sense to view it as the start of a trend toward higher rates until the market pr...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.62% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.15% +0.03% 10/8/2024
It's been a strange and frustrating couple of weeks for anyone who mistakenly believed that mortgage rates would move lower after the Fed rate cut.  To be sure, there is plenty of that sentiment out there according to the just released Fannie Mae sentiment survey showing the highest net percentage of respondents who thought rates would go down since the survey began in 2021. To be fair, the survey asks about a 12 month time frame and a lot can happen in 12 months...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 08
3:00AM Fed Kugler Speech
6:00AM Sep NFIB Business Optimism Index Sep 91.5 91.7 91.2
8:30AM Aug Imports Aug $342.2B $345.4B
8:30AM Aug Exports Aug $271.8B $266.5B
8:30AM Aug Trade Gap (bl) Aug $-70.4B $-70.6B $-78.8B
8:55AM Oct/05 Redbook yy (%) Oct/05 5.4% 5.3%
10:10AM Oct IBD economic optimism Oct 46.9 47.2 46.1
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 80
11:30AM 42-Day Bill Auction (%) 4.720% 4.410%
12:45PM Fed Bostic Speech
1:00PM 3-Year Note Auction 3.440%
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
4:00PM Fed Collins Speech
4:30PM Oct/04 API weekly crude stocks (ml) Oct/04 1.95M -1.5M
7:30PM Fed Jefferson Speech
Wednesday, Oct 09
7:00AM Oct/04 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) Oct/04 6.14%
7:00AM Oct/04 MBA Mortgage Applications Oct/04 -1.3%
7:00AM Oct/04 MBA Purchase Index Oct/04 149.3
7:00AM Oct/04 MBA Refi Index Oct/04 1099.5
7:00AM Oct/04 Mortgage Market Index Oct/04 292.3
9:15AM Fed Logan Speech
10:00AM Aug Wholesale inventories mm (%) Aug 0.2% 0.3%
10:30AM Oct/04 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Oct/04 -0.662M
10:30AM Oct/04 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change Oct/04 -0.277M
10:30AM Oct/04 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change Oct/04 -1.5M 1.119M
10:30AM Oct/04 EIA Gasoline Production Change Oct/04 -0.235M
10:30AM Oct/04 EIA Distillate Stocks Change Oct/04 -2.3M -1.284M
10:30AM Oct/04 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/04 1.9M 3.889M
10:30AM Oct/04 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change Oct/04 -0.104M
10:30AM Oct/04 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change Oct/04 0.84M
10:30AM Oct/04 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change Oct/04 0.191M
10:30AM Fed Goolsbee Speech
10:30AM Fed Barkin Speech
10:45AM Fed Logan Speech
11:00AM Fed Williams Speech
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction (%) 4.410%
12:15PM Fed Barkin Speech
12:30PM Fed Jefferson Speech
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
1:00PM 10-Year Note Auction 3.648%
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
5:00PM Fed Collins Speech
6:00PM Fed Daly Speech
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There was a lot riding on Friday's big jobs report with a weak result likely to reinvigorate a move to long-term lows and a strong result likely to push rates higher. It ended up being VERY strong, thus pushing rates higher VERY quickly. The following chart shows the day over day change in the 30yr fixed rate index from Mortgage News Daily: The worst day in April was just a bit more abr... READ MORE