April Palacios
Branch Sales Manager
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
License:
124941

Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday

Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday

Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnight session, but even if they never improved from those levels, yields still would have been inside the prevailing range (4.0 to 4.12 in terms of the 10yr).  As it stands, they did improve a bit, ultimately hitting 4.063 at the lows and holding near there through the close.  MBS picked up a microscopic gain as well.  All of the above is perfectly reasonable considering the lack of motivation in economic data.  Today's only report (residential construction) hasn't moved markets in over a decade.  With that, we're back to waiting for relevant data with the next notable installment not arriving until Thursday.

Latest Video Analysis

Straightforward Session. Back to Waiting

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.47 +0.02 10YR 4.085% -0.007% 10/18/2024 5:00PM EST
While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical.  Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthcoming Fed meeting, data drives all (to be fair, data drives the Fed as well).  Thursday brought the week's biggest supply of data with all the big reports being stronger than expected.  Bonds logically tanked.  Now today, there is no significant data so bonds have no reason to tank. For those wonder...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.68% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.07% -0.02% 10/18/2024
There hasn't been much day to day movement in mortgage rates after the big jump caused by the jobs report earlier in the month.  That jump ended on Monday the 7th and the average 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved more than 0.06% since then.  For context, we wouldn't consider a short term move to be significant unless it was at least twice as big (the jobs report reaction was 6 times bigger at +0.36%). Today was the smallest move of the week with Friday's average rate...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 18
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
8:30AM Sep Build permits: change mm (%) Sep -2.9% 4.6%
8:30AM Sep Building permits: number (ml) Sep 1.428M 1.46M 1.47M
8:30AM Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) Sep 1.354M 1.35M 1.356M
8:30AM Sep House starts mm: change (%) Sep -0.5% 9.6%
9:30AM Fed Bostic Speech
10:00AM Fed Kashkari Speech
12:10PM Fed Waller Speech
12:30PM Fed Bostic Speech
1:00PM Oct/18 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Oct/18 482 481
1:00PM Oct/18 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Oct/18 585 586
4:00PM Sep Federal budget, $ (bl) Sep $64B $61B $-380B
Monday, Oct 21
8:55AM Fed Logan Speech
10:00AM Sep CB Leading Index MoM (%) Sep -0.3% -0.2%
11:30AM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 81
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.515%
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.270%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 72
1:00PM Fed Kashkari Speech
5:05PM Fed Schmid Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
This newsletter series spent 3 straight weeks trying to remind readers that mortgage rates could go higher after the Fed rate cut, and then several more weeks warning about the high stakes jobs report.  We had no way of knowing how the future would play out then, and that continues to be the case, but it's time to get the next big warning on the table. The past 5 months have seen... READ MORE
April Palacios
Branch Sales Manager
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
License:
124941