Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts
Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts
Every year there are a few days where bonds move as if obviously inspired in spite of a distinct absence of obvious inspiration. Monday was one of those days. Sure, there are a few "best guesses" making the rounds, but all of them are fairly easy to debate and none of them are worth the 11.5bp jump to the highest 10yr yields in almost 3 months. News articles pointing out "the economy" or "the deficit" are grasping at straws. These things are valid, but they wouldn't adequately account for today's sell-off. Sometimes the explanations for these episodes become clearer in hindsight. Other times, the mystery endures. Either way, volatility remains a big risk through mid-November.
Ratio of Weakness to Explanations is Off The Charts
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tuesday, Oct 22 | |||||
8:55AM | Oct/19 Redbook yy (%) | Oct/19 | 4.6% | 5.6% | |
10:00AM | Oct Rich Fed manuf shipments | Oct | -8 | -18 | |
10:00AM | Oct Rich Fed, services index | Oct | 3 | -1 | |
10:00AM | Oct Rich Fed comp. index | Oct | -14 | -18 | -21 |
10:00AM | Fed Harker Speech | ||||
11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 80 | |||
11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.650% | 4.720% | ||
1:00PM | Sep Money Supply | Sep | $21.22T | $21.18T | |
4:30PM | Oct/18 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Oct/18 | 1.643M | 0.7M | -1.58M |
Wednesday, Oct 23 | |||||
7:00AM | Oct/18 MBA Mortgage Applications | Oct/18 | -6.7% | -17% | |
7:00AM | Oct/18 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Oct/18 | 6.52% | 6.52% | |
7:00AM | Oct/18 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/18 | 214.8 | 230.2 | |
7:00AM | Oct/18 MBA Refi Index | Oct/18 | 672.6 | 734.6 | |
7:00AM | Oct/18 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/18 | 131.3 | 138.4 | |
9:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
10:00AM | Sep Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Sep | -1% | -2.5% | |
10:00AM | Sep Existing home sales (ml) | Sep | 3.84M | 3.9M | 3.86M |
10:30AM | Oct/18 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Oct/18 | -1.14M | -2M | -3.534M |
10:30AM | Oct/18 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Oct/18 | 0.257M | -0.234M | |
10:30AM | Oct/18 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Oct/18 | 0.878M | -1.6M | -2.201M |
10:30AM | Oct/18 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Oct/18 | 0.666M | -0.941M | |
10:30AM | Oct/18 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Oct/18 | -0.346M | 0.108M | |
10:30AM | Oct/18 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/18 | 5.474M | 0.7M | -2.192M |
10:30AM | Oct/18 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Oct/18 | -0.28M | -0.343M | |
10:30AM | Oct/18 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Oct/18 | 0.329M | 0.165M | |
10:30AM | Oct/18 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Oct/18 | 0.913M | -1.039M | |
11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.445% | 4.430% | ||
12:00PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
1:00PM | 20-Year Bond Auction | 4.590% | 4.039% | ||
2:00PM | Fed Beige Book |