Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
Bonds had a fine morning with overnight gains bringing yields in line with the lowest levels of the past few days within the first 2 hours of domestic trading. From the 9:30am NYSE open on, bonds began moving in the other direction. There were no individual, new catalysts for the weakness, and more importantly, it wasn't even a level of weakness that matters in the bigger picture. Rather, this is the reality for the next few weeks in addition to being the occasional reality on any Friday afternoon after 3pm ET (due to the CME close). Looking back on the week, the only move that mattered was the sell-off into Wednesday morning. After that, the unwillingness on the part of 10yr yields to move back below 4.20 means they've been sideways ever since. It's unpleasant in the moment, but this is nothing compared to what we could see in the coming weeks.
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Oct 28 | |||||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 3:00PM | Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%) | ||||
| Tuesday, Oct 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Sep | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 9:00AM | Aug FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Aug | 4.2% | 4.5% | |
| 9:00AM | Aug CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Aug | -0.3% | 0% | |
| 9:00AM | Aug Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Aug | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% |
| 9:00AM | Aug FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Oct | 108.7 | 99.5 | 98.7 |
| 10:00AM | Sep JOLTs Job Quits | Sep | 3.071M | 3.084M | |
| 10:00AM | Sep USA JOLTS Job Openings | Sep | 7.443M | 7.99M | 8.04M |
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.630% | 4.650% | ||
| 1:00PM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.205% | 0.261% | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:30PM | Oct/25 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Oct/25 | -0.573M | 2.3M | 1.643M |
