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Nice Recovery After JOLTS Data and Treasury Auction
Nice Recovery After JOLTS Data and Treasury Auction
If bond yields fall a few bps after having risen about 30 times as much, is it still a rally? Who knows, but that's what happened this afternoon. Yields actually began the day higher and continued to weaken ahead of the JOLTS data and Treasury auction. Both events proved to be beneficial, but it was only after making it trough the 1pm auction of 7yr Treasuries that the buying demand stuck around long enough to get MBS and Treasuries into positive territory on the day. As our ongoing lock/float guidance suggests, periodic victories will happen in this environment. The bigger victories depend on bigger data and events, but Tuesday was nonetheless "nice" if for no other reason than to prove bonds are still capable of rallying when there's justification.
Nice Recovery After JOLTS and Treasury Auction
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 30 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Oct/25 | 6.73% | 6.52% | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 MBA Mortgage Applications | Oct/25 | -0.1% | -6.7% | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/25 | 214.5 | 214.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 MBA Refi Index | Oct/25 | 630.0 | 672.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/25 | 137.8 | 131.3 | |
| 8:15AM | Oct ADP jobs (k) | Oct | 233K | 115K | 143K |
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q3 | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final | Q3 | 3.7% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q3 | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 3% | 1.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP deflator (%) | Q3 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 2.8% | 3% | 3% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Home Sales YoY | Sep | 2.6% | -3% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Home Sales (%) | Sep | 7.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Oct/25 | 0.571M | -0.28M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Oct/25 | -0.605M | 0.913M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Oct/25 | -2.707M | 0.6M | 0.878M |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Oct/25 | 0.681M | -0.346M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Oct/25 | -0.148M | 0.257M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Oct/25 | -0.259M | 0.666M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/25 | -0.515M | 2.3M | 5.474M |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Oct/25 | -0.977M | -1.59M | -1.14M |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Oct/25 | -0.031M | 0.329M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.430% | 4.445% | ||
| Thursday, Oct 31 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 72.821K | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/19 Continued Claims (ml) | Oct/19 | 1890K | 1897K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment Benefits qq (%) | Q3 | 1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment Wages qq (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/26 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Oct/26 | 238.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Personal Income (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/26 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/26 | 230K | 227K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.1% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE price index mm (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 9:45AM | Oct Chicago PMI | Oct | 47 | 46.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Oct/25 | 79Bcf | 80Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.650% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.590% | |||
| 12:00PM | Oct/30 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/30 | 6.54% | ||
| 12:00PM | Oct/30 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/30 | 5.71% | ||
| 4:30PM | Oct/30 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Oct/30 | $7.03T | ||
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