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Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given the 233k vs 115k result in the ADP Employment data. Granted, ADP is a notoriously imperfect predictor of the NFP number that follows 2 days later, but that never stops markets from reacting on occasions like this. So what stopped them today? Some combination of month-end trading, a favorable report on new Treasury auction amounts, "bigger fish to fry," and perhaps the fact that payroll counts are being taken with a grain of salt due to weather-related disruptions in September. Ultimately, bonds did manage to lose a bit of ground, but not until well after the morning's econ data reaction window had passed.
Reasonably Resilient in Light of Stronger Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Oct 31 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 55.597K | 72.821K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/19 Continued Claims (ml) | Oct/19 | 1890K | 1897K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment Benefits qq (%) | Q3 | 1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment Wages qq (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/26 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Oct/26 | 238.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Personal Income (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/26 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/26 | 230K | 227K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.1% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE price index mm (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 9:45AM | Oct Chicago PMI | Oct | 47 | 46.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Oct/25 | 79Bcf | 80Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.650% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.590% | |||
| 12:00PM | Oct/30 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/30 | 6.54% | ||
| 12:00PM | Oct/30 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/30 | 5.71% | ||
| 4:30PM | Oct/30 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Oct/30 | $7.03T | ||
| Friday, Nov 01 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4% | 4% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Average workweek hrs (hr) | Oct | 34.2 | 34.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls | Oct | 115K | 254K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Private Payrolls (k) | Oct | 90K | 223K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Oct | -28K | -7K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Participation Rate | Oct | 62.7% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Government Payrolls | Oct | 31K | ||
| 8:30AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.7% | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Unemployment rate mm (%) | Oct | 4.1% | 4.1% | |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Oct | 47.8 | 47.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment | Oct | 43.9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Oct | 46.1 | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Oct | 49.3 | 48.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI | Oct | 47.6 | 47.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Construction spending (%) | Sep | 0% | -0.1% | |
| 1:00PM | Nov/01 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Nov/01 | 480 | ||
| 1:00PM | Nov/01 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Nov/01 | 585 | ||
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