Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
It's been a weird week so far with a crazy combination of significant intraday volatility and an absence of any major movement in the bigger picture. Case in point, closing levels in 10yr yields have been 4.27, 4.27, 4.28, and 4.28 (at the 3pm CME) close. That's an uncommonly flat week for closing levels, but even less common during a week with an absolute range of more than 13bps. Stranger still is that the volatility has taken few--if any--cues from economic data. Case in point, today's biggest market mover was the big sell off in UK bonds. Does this mean markets may be less interested in reacting to tomorrow's jobs report as much as normal? The answer is this simple: never bet against the jobs report's potential to make waves. Sure, the ultimate level of volatility could be limited by next week's unknowns, but a lopsided result in either direction would still be almost guaranteed to push rates in the corresponding direction.
sideways to slightly stronger overnight and a bit weaker after data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.307
More weakness now with US bonds potentially taking some cues from a big UK sell-off. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.314
Bouncing back a bit now as U.K. bonds recover. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.286
Slightly better recovery. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.279
Will Jobs Report Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Oct 31 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 55.597K | 72.821K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Oct/19 Continued Claims (ml) | Oct/19 | 1862K | 1890K | 1897K |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment Benefits qq (%) | Q3 | 0.8% | 1% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment Wages qq (%) | Q3 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Oct/26 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Oct/26 | 236.5K | 238.5K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Personal Income (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Oct/26 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/26 | 216K | 230K | 227K |
| 8:30AM | Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Sep | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE price index mm (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 9:45AM | Oct Chicago PMI | Oct | 41.6 | 47 | 46.6 |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Oct/25 | 78Bcf | 81Bcf | 80Bcf |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.580% | 4.650% | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.555% | 4.590% | ||
| 12:00PM | Oct/30 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/30 | 6.72% | 6.54% | |
| 12:00PM | Oct/30 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/30 | 5.99% | 5.71% | |
| 4:30PM | Oct/30 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Oct/30 | $7.01T | $7.03T | |
| Friday, Nov 01 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4% | 4% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Average workweek hrs (hr) | Oct | 34.2 | 34.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls | Oct | 113K | 254K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Private Payrolls (k) | Oct | 90K | 223K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Oct | -28K | -7K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Participation Rate | Oct | 62.7% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Government Payrolls | Oct | 31K | ||
| 8:30AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.7% | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Unemployment rate mm (%) | Oct | 4.1% | 4.1% | |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Oct | 47.8 | 47.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment | Oct | 43.9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Oct | 46.1 | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Oct | 48.5 | 48.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI | Oct | 47.6 | 47.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Construction spending (%) | Sep | 0% | -0.1% | |
| 1:00PM | Nov/01 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Nov/01 | 479 | 480 | |
| 1:00PM | Nov/01 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Nov/01 | 585 | ||
