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Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113k, and a previous reading of 254k. If those were the only facts you knew, on almost any other jobs report day in the history of jobs report days, you'd be well advised to bet heavily on a bond rally. The fact that bonds tanked can only be explained by an unknown combination of two things--maybe 3. We're all already family with bonds generally weakening ahead of the election. That could be an ongoing factor behind today's weakness. But there's also some nuance in the jobs report if we agree that the payroll count was artificially distorted by temporary events. Lastly, ISM prices rose to the highest levels of the year. This could have some traders thinking "what if inflation has another bounce like it did in early 2024?" This might seem like a longshot, but bonds were still in positive territory by the time ISM came out.
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Nov 01 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4% | 4% | 4% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Average workweek hrs (hr) | Oct | 34.3 | 34.2 | 34.2 |
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls | Oct | 12K | 113K | 254K |
| 8:30AM | Oct Private Payrolls (k) | Oct | -28K | 90K | 223K |
| 8:30AM | Oct Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Oct | -46K | -28K | -7K |
| 8:30AM | Oct Participation Rate | Oct | 62.6% | 62.7% | 62.7% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Government Payrolls | Oct | 40K | 31K | |
| 8:30AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.7% | 7.7% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Unemployment rate mm (%) | Oct | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Oct | 48.5 | 47.8 | 47.3 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment | Oct | 44.4 | 45.0 | 43.9 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Oct | 47.1 | 47.0 | 46.1 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Oct | 54.8 | 48.5 | 48.3 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI | Oct | 46.5 | 47.6 | 47.2 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Construction spending (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0% | -0.1% |
| 1:00PM | Nov/01 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Nov/01 | 479 | 479 | 480 |
| 1:00PM | Nov/01 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Nov/01 | 585 | 585 | |
| Monday, Nov 04 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | Sep | 0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Factory orders mm (%) | Sep | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.2% |
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.260% | 4.325% | ||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.440% | 4.49% | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 72 | |||
| 1:00PM | 3-Year Note Auction | 4.152% | 3.878% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
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