Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately)
Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately)
Bonds sold off on Tuesday both during the domestic session and in the overnight hours leading up to it. Motivations are a matter of conjecture as there is not a conveniently obvious scapegoat. That hasn't stopped journalists, analysts, and traders from chiming in. The resulting laundry list mostly includes political considerations ranging from specific revelations regarding cabinet appointees to generalizations about the market continuing to process fiscal implications. We'd certainly add a high likelihood of positional considerations with last Thu/Fri now looking very much like an opportunity to cover shorts (makes yields move lower) and get neutral ahead of the 3-day weekend before getting yields back in line with post-election highs today.
Bonds move sharply weaker overnight and in early trading. 10yr up 8.4bps at 4.389 and MBS down 13 ticks (.41)
MBS are down 14 ticks (.44) on the day and just over an eighth of a point from the AM highs. 10yr yields are up 10.7bps at 4.413.
Weakest levels of the day for MBS, down nearly 5/8ths of a point. 10yr up 13bps at 4.437
Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately)
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Nov 12 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Oct NFIB Business Optimism Index | Oct | 93.7 | 91.9 | 91.5 |
| 8:55AM | Nov/09 Redbook yy (%) | Nov/09 | 4.8% | 6% | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:10AM | Nov IBD economic optimism | Nov | 53.2 | 47.3 | 46.9 |
| 10:15AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 1 to 2.5 yrs (%) | $75 million | |||
| 11:00AM | Oct Consumer Inflation Expectations | Oct | 2.9% | 3% | |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 72 | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 81 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.420% | 4.440% | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.310% | 4.260% | ||
| 1:00PM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 80 | |||
| 1:00PM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.555% | 4.550% | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
| 5:00PM | Fed Harker Speech | ||||
| 5:30PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Nov 13 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/08 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/08 | 191.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/08 MBA Mortgage Applications | Nov/08 | -10.8% | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/08 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Nov/08 | 6.81% | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/08 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/08 | 130.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/08 MBA Refi Index | Nov/08 | 513.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct CPI index, nsa | Oct | 315.59 | 315.30 | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Core CPI index, sa | Oct | 314.686 | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct m/m Headline CPI (%) | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct y/y Headline CPI (%) | Oct | 2.6% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct y/y CORE CPI (%) | Oct | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct m/m CORE CPI (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9:45AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Q3 Total Household Debt | Q3 | $17.8T | ||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.410% | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Oct Federal budget, $ (bl) | Oct | $-211B | $64B | |
| 4:30PM | Nov/08 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Nov/08 | 3.132M | ||
