Morning Rally Largely Erased. Why?
Morning Rally Largely Erased. Why?
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory but quickly rallied after the CPI data. The rally was informative, both in terms of its moderate size and high volume. It reinforced our assumption that inflation data was back on the menu of big ticket market movers after taking a distant back seat to the jobs report. The initial reaction was short-lived though. Gains only stuck around for the shortest-term bonds. 10yr yields ended up moving higher by several bps while MBS maintained modest gains thanks to their shorter implied duration (i.e. we continued to use 10yr Treasuries as a big picture rate benchmark, but MBS trade more like 5yr Treasuries these days). Rationale is in short supply for the selling because there were no clear, individual motivations. Instead, we are forced to point to a slew of Fed speeches that were collectively more hawkish. Beyond that, one might offer some conjecture about anticipated fiscal impacts from various political developments, but that narrative is certainly getting a bit tired at this point.
fairly flat overnight and moderately stronger after CPI data. MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.383
AM rally ebbing since 930am. MBS still up a quarter point, but down nearly as much from the highs.
Weakest levels since before AM data. MBS still up 3 ticks (.09). 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.458
MBS up 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.449
Morning Rally Largely Erased
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thursday, Nov 14 | |||||
7:00AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
8:30AM | Oct PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | Oct | 0.1% | ||
8:30AM | Oct Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Oct | 3% | 2.8% | |
8:30AM | Nov/09 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Nov/09 | 227.25K | ||
8:30AM | Nov/09 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/09 | 223K | 221K | |
8:30AM | Nov/02 Continued Claims (ml) | Nov/02 | 1880K | 1892K | |
8:30AM | Oct PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | Oct | 3.2% | ||
8:30AM | Oct Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
8:30AM | Oct PPI YoY | Oct | 2.3% | 1.8% | |
8:30AM | Oct Producer Prices (%) | Oct | 0.2% | 0% | |
8:30AM | Oct PPI | Oct | 145.173 | ||
9:15AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
10:30AM | Nov/08 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Nov/08 | 34Bcf | 69Bcf | |
11:00AM | Nov/08 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Nov/08 | 0.233M | ||
11:00AM | Nov/08 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Nov/08 | 0.522M | ||
11:00AM | Nov/08 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Nov/08 | 1.676M | ||
11:00AM | Nov/08 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Nov/08 | 1M | 2.947M | |
11:00AM | Nov/08 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Nov/08 | 0.281M | ||
11:00AM | Nov/08 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Nov/08 | 0.335M | ||
11:00AM | Nov/08 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/08 | 1M | 2.149M | |
11:00AM | Nov/08 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Nov/08 | 0.013M | ||
11:00AM | Nov/08 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Nov/08 | 1M | 0.412M | |
11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.490% | |||
11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.515% | |||
12:00PM | Nov/13 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/13 | 6.79% | ||
12:00PM | Nov/13 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/13 | 6% | ||
3:00PM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
4:15PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
4:30PM | Nov/13 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Nov/13 | $6.99T | ||
Friday, Nov 15 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
8:30AM | Nov NY Fed Manufacturing | Nov | -0.7 | -11.9 | |
8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | Oct | 0.7% | ||
8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales YoY | Oct | 1.7% | ||
8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
8:30AM | Oct Import Prices YoY | Oct | -0.1% | ||
8:30AM | Oct Export Prices YoY | Oct | -2.1% | ||
8:30AM | Oct Export prices mm (%) | Oct | -0.1% | -0.7% | |
8:30AM | Oct Import prices mm (%) | Oct | -0.1% | -0.4% | |
9:15AM | Oct Manufacturing Production YoY | Oct | -0.5% | ||
9:15AM | Oct Industrial Production (%) | Oct | -0.3% | -0.3% | |
9:15AM | Oct Capacity Utilization (%) | Oct | 77.2% | 77.5% | |
9:15AM | Oct Industrial Production YoY | Oct | -0.6% | ||
9:15AM | Oct Manufacturing Production MoM | Oct | -0.5% | -0.4% | |
10:00AM | Sep Business Inventories (% ) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
10:00AM | Sep Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Sep | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
1:00PM | Nov/15 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Nov/15 | 479 | ||
1:00PM | Nov/15 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Nov/15 | 585 |