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Morning Rally Largely Erased. Why?

Morning Rally Largely Erased. Why?

Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory but quickly rallied after the CPI data.  The rally was informative, both in terms of its moderate size and high volume.  It reinforced our assumption that inflation data was back on the menu of big ticket market movers after taking a distant back seat to the jobs report. The initial reaction was short-lived though.  Gains only stuck around for the shortest-term bonds.  10yr yields ended up moving higher by several bps while MBS maintained modest gains thanks to their shorter implied duration (i.e. we continued to use 10yr Treasuries as a big picture rate benchmark, but MBS trade more like 5yr Treasuries these days). Rationale is in short supply for the selling because there were no clear, individual motivations.  Instead, we are forced to point to a slew of Fed speeches that were collectively more hawkish.  Beyond that, one might offer some conjecture about anticipated fiscal impacts from various political developments, but that narrative is certainly getting a bit tired at this point. 

Market Movement Recap
08:43 AM

fairly flat overnight and moderately stronger after CPI data.  MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.383

10:10 AM

AM rally ebbing since 930am.  MBS still up a quarter point, but down nearly as much from the highs.

01:25 PM

Weakest levels since before AM data.  MBS still up 3 ticks (.09).  10yr up 3.4bps at 4.458

03:53 PM

MBS up 6 ticks (.19).  10yr up 2.5bps at 4.449

Latest Video Analysis

Morning Rally Largely Erased

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.89 -0.11 10YR 4.465% +0.001% 11/14/2024 1:15AM EST
Bonds continue selling off in a measured, linear fashion.  10yr yields are now up 3.2bps on the day at 4.456.  MBS are up 3 ticks (.09), outperforming due to yield curve trading (i.e. shorter durations doing better).  Despite the outperformance, this is more than a quarter point below the AM highs and at least an eighth of a point below almost every lender's rate sheet print time.  Jumpy lenders are increasingly likely to be considering negative reprice...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.01% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.37% -0.02% 11/13/2024
While there's been plenty of movement in the average mortgage rate on any given day recently, today was not one of them.  30yr fixed rates remained above 7%, but technically fell 0.01% (an amount so small that it may as well be considered an absence of change).   Despite the flat day-over-day result, there continues to be much more intraday movement than normal.  Mortgage lenders publish an initial rate in the morning and it only changes if the bond mark...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 14
7:00AM Fed Kugler Speech
8:30AM Oct PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM Oct 0.1%
8:30AM Oct Core Producer Prices YY (%) Oct 3% 2.8%
8:30AM Nov/09 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) Nov/09 227.25K
8:30AM Nov/09 Jobless Claims (k) Nov/09 223K 221K
8:30AM Nov/02 Continued Claims (ml) Nov/02 1880K 1892K
8:30AM Oct PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY Oct 3.2%
8:30AM Oct Core Producer Prices MM (%) Oct 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Oct PPI YoY Oct 2.3% 1.8%
8:30AM Oct Producer Prices (%) Oct 0.2% 0%
8:30AM Oct PPI Oct 145.173
9:15AM Fed Barkin Speech
10:30AM Nov/08 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf Nov/08 34Bcf 69Bcf
11:00AM Nov/08 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change Nov/08 0.233M
11:00AM Nov/08 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change Nov/08 0.522M
11:00AM Nov/08 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change Nov/08 1.676M
11:00AM Nov/08 EIA Distillate Stocks Change Nov/08 1M 2.947M
11:00AM Nov/08 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Nov/08 0.281M
11:00AM Nov/08 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change Nov/08 0.335M
11:00AM Nov/08 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Nov/08 1M 2.149M
11:00AM Nov/08 EIA Gasoline Production Change Nov/08 0.013M
11:00AM Nov/08 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change Nov/08 1M 0.412M
11:30AM 8-Week Bill Auction 4.490%
11:30AM 4-Week Bill Auction 4.515%
12:00PM Nov/13 30-Year Mortgage Rate Nov/13 6.79%
12:00PM Nov/13 15-Year Mortgage Rate Nov/13 6%
3:00PM Fed Chair Powell Speech
4:15PM Fed Williams Speech
4:30PM Nov/13 Central Bank Balance Sheet Nov/13 $6.99T
Friday, Nov 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Oct Retail Sales (%) Oct 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM Nov NY Fed Manufacturing Nov -0.7 -11.9
8:30AM Oct Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM Oct 0.7%
8:30AM Oct Retail Sales YoY Oct 1.7%
8:30AM Oct Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) Oct 0.3% 0.5%
8:30AM Oct Import Prices YoY Oct -0.1%
8:30AM Oct Export Prices YoY Oct -2.1%
8:30AM Oct Export prices mm (%) Oct -0.1% -0.7%
8:30AM Oct Import prices mm (%) Oct -0.1% -0.4%
9:15AM Oct Manufacturing Production YoY Oct -0.5%
9:15AM Oct Industrial Production (%) Oct -0.3% -0.3%
9:15AM Oct Capacity Utilization (%) Oct 77.2% 77.5%
9:15AM Oct Industrial Production YoY Oct -0.6%
9:15AM Oct Manufacturing Production MoM Oct -0.5% -0.4%
10:00AM Sep Business Inventories (% ) Sep 0.2% 0.3%
10:00AM Sep Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv Sep 0.1% 0.5%
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
1:00PM Nov/15 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Nov/15 479
1:00PM Nov/15 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Nov/15 585
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Mortgage rates spent the entire month of October moving higher at a fairly quick pace. Some of that had to do with stronger economic data, but at least as much had to do with the bond market (bonds dictate rates) adjusting to election probabilities. As we've been advising in recent weeks, the consensus was that a Trump victory (or improved odds thereof) was associated with upward pressure on rates... READ MORE
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