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The Case For a Sideways Ceiling Continues to Build
The Case For a Sideways Ceiling Continues to Build
Granted, yields are only 3 days removed from hitting their highest levels in 5 months, but those levels weren't much worse than November 6th. If we treat this zone (call it 4.45% in 10yr yields, give or take 0.05%) as a potential ceiling, it received yet another vote of support with today's very calm trading near 4.42%. Geopolitical headlines were taken in stride (modest improvement) and 20yr auction results pushed back a bit in the afternoon. Most importantly (not really), bond traders managed to stay someone engaged despite every news story, email, TV segment, etc. focusing on NVIDIA earnings.
The Case For a Sideways Ceiling Continues to Build
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 21 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov/09 Continued Claims (ml) | Nov/09 | 1908K | 1870K | 1873K |
| 8:30AM | Nov/16 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Nov/16 | 217.75K | 221K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/16 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/16 | 213K | 220K | 217K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid | Nov | 26.60 | 29.70 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Index | Nov | -5.5 | 8 | 10.3 |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Conditions | Nov | 56.6 | 36.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Nov | 24.90 | 23.50 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Employment | Nov | 8.6 | -2.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed New Orders | Nov | 8.9 | 14.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Oct Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Oct | 3.4% | -1% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Existing home sales (ml) | Oct | 3.96M | 3.93M | 3.84M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/15 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Nov/15 | -3Bcf | 5Bcf | 42Bcf |
| 11:00AM | Nov KC Fed manufacturing | Nov | -4 | 0 | |
| 11:00AM | Nov Kansas Fed Composite Index | Nov | -2 | -4 | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.480% | 4.460% | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.530% | 4.510% | ||
| 12:00PM | Nov/20 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/20 | 6.02% | 5.99% | |
| 12:00PM | Nov/20 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/20 | 6.84% | 6.78% | |
| 12:25PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 17 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.071% | 1.592% | ||
| 4:30PM | Nov/20 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Nov/20 | $6.92T | $6.96T | |
| Friday, Nov 22 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Nov | 48.8 | 48.8 | 48.5 |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 55.3 | 54.1 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 57.0 | 55.2 | 55.0 |
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 63.9 | 64.4 | 64.9 |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 71.8 | 73.7 | 70.5 |
| 10:00AM | Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Nov | 76.9 | 78.5 | 74.1 |
| 1:00PM | Nov/22 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Nov/22 | 479 | 478 | |
| 1:00PM | Nov/22 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Nov/22 | 583 | 584 | |
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