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Bonds Giving Up Early Gains, But Not Due to Data
Bonds Giving Up Early Gains, But Not Due to Data
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to improve a bit more after the 8:30am econ data. Selling picked up mysteriously at 9am and buyers fought back at the 9:30am NYSE open. After multiple lead changes, weaker momentum has prevailed since 10am and bonds are entering the 2nd half of the day in microscopically weaker territory.
Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains after data. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.383
Off best levels now. MBS up only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr now up 0.4bps at 4.409
The Case For a Sideways Ceiling Continues to Build
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 21 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov/09 Continued Claims (ml) | Nov/09 | 1908K | 1870K | 1873K |
| 8:30AM | Nov/16 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Nov/16 | 217.75K | 221K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/16 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/16 | 213K | 220K | 217K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid | Nov | 26.60 | 29.70 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Index | Nov | -5.5 | 8 | 10.3 |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Conditions | Nov | 56.6 | 36.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Nov | 24.90 | 23.50 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Employment | Nov | 8.6 | -2.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed New Orders | Nov | 8.9 | 14.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Oct Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Oct | 3.4% | -1% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Existing home sales (ml) | Oct | 3.96M | 3.93M | 3.84M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/15 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Nov/15 | -3Bcf | 5Bcf | 42Bcf |
| 11:00AM | Nov KC Fed manufacturing | Nov | -4 | 0 | |
| 11:00AM | Nov Kansas Fed Composite Index | Nov | -2 | -4 | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.480% | 4.460% | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.530% | 4.510% | ||
| 12:00PM | Nov/20 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/20 | 6.02% | 5.99% | |
| 12:00PM | Nov/20 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/20 | 6.84% | 6.78% | |
| 12:25PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 17 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.071% | 1.592% | ||
| 4:30PM | Nov/20 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Nov/20 | $6.92T | $6.96T | |
| Friday, Nov 22 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Nov | 48.8 | 48.5 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 54.1 | ||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 55.2 | 55 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 64.4 | 64.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 73.7 | 70.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Nov | 78.5 | 74.1 | |
| 1:00PM | Nov/22 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Nov/22 | 478 | ||
| 1:00PM | Nov/22 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Nov/22 | 584 | ||
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