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Another Flat Day, This Time With Data
Another Flat Day, This Time With Data
While it would be an overstatement to say that bonds have fully outgrown the phase of volatility that's dominated October and early November, it's not unfair to say that volatility has been subsiding rather markedly--especially if we focus on day over day closing levels. 8 out of the past 8 trading sessions have seen 10yr yields end the day in a 4.40 to 4.46 range--pretty narrow, even for a more boring economic and political backdrop. Today's neutrality had at least something to do with the mixed messages in the econ data, but bonds are definitely waiting for the heavy hitting report of early December before making bigger bets.
Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains after data. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.383
Off best levels now. MBS up only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr now up 0.4bps at 4.409
MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.429
Another Flat Day, This Time With Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 21 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov/09 Continued Claims (ml) | Nov/09 | 1908K | 1870K | 1873K |
| 8:30AM | Nov/16 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Nov/16 | 217.75K | 221K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/16 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/16 | 213K | 220K | 217K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid | Nov | 26.60 | 29.70 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Index | Nov | -5.5 | 8 | 10.3 |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Conditions | Nov | 56.6 | 36.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Nov | 24.90 | 23.50 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Employment | Nov | 8.6 | -2.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed New Orders | Nov | 8.9 | 14.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Oct Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Oct | 3.4% | -1% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Existing home sales (ml) | Oct | 3.96M | 3.93M | 3.84M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/15 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Nov/15 | -3Bcf | 5Bcf | 42Bcf |
| 11:00AM | Nov KC Fed manufacturing | Nov | -4 | 0 | |
| 11:00AM | Nov Kansas Fed Composite Index | Nov | -2 | -4 | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.480% | 4.460% | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.530% | 4.510% | ||
| 12:00PM | Nov/20 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/20 | 6.02% | 5.99% | |
| 12:00PM | Nov/20 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/20 | 6.84% | 6.78% | |
| 12:25PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 17 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.071% | 1.592% | ||
| 4:30PM | Nov/20 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Nov/20 | $6.92T | $6.96T | |
| Friday, Nov 22 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Nov | 48.8 | 48.5 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 54.1 | ||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 55.2 | 55 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 64.4 | 64.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 73.7 | 70.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Nov | 78.5 | 74.1 | |
| 1:00PM | Nov/22 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Nov/22 | 478 | ||
| 1:00PM | Nov/22 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Nov/22 | 584 | ||
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