Another Flat Day, This Time With Data

Another Flat Day, This Time With Data

While it would be an overstatement to say that bonds have fully outgrown the phase of volatility that's dominated October and early November, it's not unfair to say that volatility has been subsiding rather markedly--especially if we focus on day over day closing levels.  8 out of the past 8 trading sessions have seen 10yr yields end the day in a 4.40 to 4.46 range--pretty narrow, even for a more boring economic and political backdrop. Today's neutrality had at least something to do with the mixed messages in the econ data, but bonds are definitely waiting for the heavy hitting report of early December before making bigger bets.

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Another Flat Day, This Time With Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.06 +0.17 10YR 4.387% -0.033% 11/22/2024 7:35AM EST
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture.  Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to improve a bit more after the 8:30am econ data.  Selling picked up mysteriously at 9am and buyers fought back at the 9:30am NYSE open.  After multiple lead changes, weaker momentum has prevailed since 10am and bonds are entering the 2nd half of the day in microscopically w...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.04% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.41% +0.00% 11/21/2024
They may not be low.  In fact, they may still be a lot higher than you want, but at least they haven't been too volatility this week.  For the 7th day in a row, the top tier, conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day in the same narrow range between 7.01% and 7.08% for the average lender.  Today's installment was one of the least eventful, with a modest drop from 7.05 to 7.04.  The relatively light day over day volatility in mortgage rates is...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Nov 22
9:45AM Nov S&P Global Manuf. PMI Nov 48.8 48.5
9:45AM Nov S&P Global Composite PMI Nov 54.1
9:45AM Nov S&P Global Services PMI Nov 55.2 55
10:00AM Nov U Mich conditions Nov 64.4 64.9
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Nov 3.1% 3%
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Nov 2.6% 2.7%
10:00AM Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) Nov 73.7 70.5
10:00AM Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Nov 78.5 74.1
1:00PM Nov/22 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Nov/22 478
1:00PM Nov/22 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Nov/22 584
Monday, Nov 25
8:30AM Oct National Activity Index Oct -0.28
10:30AM Nov Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Nov -3
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 81
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.310%
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.420%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 72
1:00PM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 40
1:00PM 2-Year Note Auction 4.130%
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
1:00PM 30-Day Bill Auction (%)
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Mortgage rates bounced hard off the long term lows back in September and had jumped almost a full percent by last week. In addition to the elevated levels, there's been plenty of volatility. Nonetheless, rates managed to avoid breaking last week's ceiling--even if only just. Does that mean it's time for hope? Hope is always a fine thing to have, but it's not a strategy when it comes to mortgage... READ MORE