Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway

Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway

After a decidedly abnormal 6 weeks beginning in early October, bonds began to calm down last week.  This offered some hope that the brisk volatility and selling pressure was subsiding.  With 10yr yields closing inside a 3bp range for 5 days in a row, the restoration of normality is basically confirmed.  Today's data didn't have a big impact, but we wouldn't expect it to (based on the mixed signals).  Bonds continue waiting on early December data for the next big push in one direction or the other.  The upcoming week is always a bit of a wild card due to the holiday and month-end, but the fact remains that there are no truly top tier market movers.

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Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.02 +0.14 10YR 4.388% -0.033% 11/22/2024 5:00PM EST
The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach.  As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the absence of any additional defeat.  This has been a perfectly successful week in that regard.  Yields fell on Monday and haven't closed any higher since then.  Today's economic data doesn't look too eager to change that sideways streak.  At this point, the previously prevailing uptrend in yields has seen...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.03% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.40% -0.01% 11/22/2024
Starting in early October, mortgage rates experienced significant volatility, meaning the average day over day change was much bigger than normal.  While the term "volatility" technically allows for larger-than-normal moves in either direction, there was a clear winner in this case with rates moving almost a full percent higher. Rates take direct cues from the bond market which, in turn, takes cues from several sources.  These include economic data, inflation, g...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Nov 22
9:45AM Nov S&P Global Manuf. PMI Nov 48.8 48.8 48.5
9:45AM Nov S&P Global Composite PMI Nov 55.3 54.1
9:45AM Nov S&P Global Services PMI Nov 57.0 55.2 55.0
10:00AM Nov U Mich conditions Nov 63.9 64.4 64.9
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Nov 3.2% 3.1% 3%
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Nov 2.6% 2.6% 2.7%
10:00AM Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) Nov 71.8 73.7 70.5
10:00AM Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Nov 76.9 78.5 74.1
1:00PM Nov/22 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Nov/22 479 478
1:00PM Nov/22 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Nov/22 583 584
Monday, Nov 25
8:30AM Oct National Activity Index Oct -0.28
10:30AM Nov Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Nov -3
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 81
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.310%
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.420%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 72
1:00PM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 40
1:00PM 2-Year Note Auction 4.130%
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
1:00PM 30-Day Bill Auction (%)
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After embarking on a volatile journey in early October, the past 2 weeks have been calmer for mortgage rates.  The present week was especially uneventful relative to the past 2 months.  The following chart measures volatility in the underlying bond market, which is the precursor for mortgage rate movement. As such, it's no surprise to see volatility subside in mortgage rates.&nbs... READ MORE