|
|
|
South Korea... Martial Law... And a Bond Rally?
South Korea... Martial Law... And a Bond Rally?
Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours. Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks. Just over an hour ago, South Korea's president declared martial law. If you don't follow Korean politics, yes, this is a head scratcher. Upon verifying the authenticity of the headlines, rather than scratch their heads, investors simply bought bonds in a classic, modest safe haven rally. This has been the dominant theme so far this morning, turning modest overnight losses to modest early morning gains. The forthcoming JOLTS data could change or accelerate the move.
Slightly weaker overnight, then stronger on geopolitical headlines. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.177
At the lows of the day with MBS now unchanged and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.206
Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 03 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Nov LMI Logistics Managers Index Current | Nov | 58.4 | 58.9 | |
| 8:55AM | Nov/30 Redbook yy (%) | Nov/30 | 7.4% | 4.9% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct JOLTs Job Quits | Oct | 3.326M | 3.071M | |
| 10:00AM | Oct USA JOLTS Job Openings | Oct | 7.744M | 7.48M | 7.443M |
| 10:10AM | Dec IBD economic optimism | Dec | 54 | 54.1 | 53.2 |
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 75 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.400% | 4.480% | ||
| 12:35PM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 3:45PM | Fed Golsbee Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Nov/29 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Nov/29 | 1.232M | -2.06M | -5.935M |
| 6:00PM | Nov Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Nov | 16.5M | 16M | 16M |
| Wednesday, Dec 04 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Nov/29 | 6.86% | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Mortgage Applications | Nov/29 | 6.3% | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/29 | 208.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Refi Index | Nov/29 | 501.7 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/29 | 152.9 | ||
| 8:15AM | Nov ADP jobs (k) | Nov | 150K | 233K | |
| 8:45AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 8:45AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 55.3 | 54.1 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 57 | 55 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory orders mm (%) | Oct | 0.2% | -0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | Oct | 0.1% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services Prices | Nov | 58.1 | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services New Orders | Nov | 57.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services Employment | Nov | 53.0 | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Biz Activity | Nov | 57.2 | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM N-Mfg PMI | Nov | 55.5 | 56 | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Nov/29 | 0.067M | ||
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Nov/29 | -1.134M | ||
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 0.73M | 3.314M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Nov/29 | 0.457M | ||
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Nov/29 | 0.259M | ||
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 2.27M | 0.416M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Nov/29 | -1.886M | ||
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/29 | -2.06M | -1.844M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Nov/29 | -0.909M | ||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.390% | |||
| 1:45PM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
|
|
|
|