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Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range
Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range
The day began with a bond rally courtesy of geopolitical headlines (martial law declared in South Korea). Traders were done reacting to the news by 9am and yields were heading back up after that with a 10am push from stronger JOLTS data. There were several friendly comments from Fed speakers in the early afternoon, but they only materially benefitted the short end of the yield curve (i.e. 2yr yields are lower on the day while 10yr yields are several bps higher). The other way to view the move is simply that the bond market rallied as much as it was willing to rally by the end of last week and yields haven't been able to make any additional progress since then. Indeed, each of the past 3 trading sessions has seen a 10yr yield low of almost exactly 4.17%. Tomorrow brings an important slate of econ data with ADP employment, ISM Services, and an afternoon Powell speech.
Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Dec 04 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Nov/29 | 6.69% | 6.86% | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Mortgage Applications | Nov/29 | 2.8% | 6.3% | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/29 | 213.9 | 208.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Refi Index | Nov/29 | 498.5 | 501.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/29 | 161.5 | 152.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Nov ADP jobs (k) | Nov | 146K | 150K | 233K |
| 8:45AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 8:45AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 54.9 | 55.3 | 54.1 |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 56.1 | 57 | 55 |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory orders mm (%) | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | Oct | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services Prices | Nov | 58.2 | 58.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services New Orders | Nov | 53.7 | 57.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services Employment | Nov | 51.5 | 53 | 53.0 |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Biz Activity | Nov | 53.7 | 57.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM N-Mfg PMI | Nov | 52.1 | 55.5 | 56 |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Nov/29 | 0.615M | 0.067M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 0.242M | -1.134M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 2.362M | 0.6M | 3.314M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Nov/29 | -0.248M | 0.457M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Nov/29 | 0.219M | 0.259M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 3.383M | 2M | 0.416M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Nov/29 | 1.635M | -1.886M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/29 | -5.073M | -1M | -1.844M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 0.05M | -0.909M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.315% | 4.390% | ||
| 1:40PM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Dec 05 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Nov Challenger layoffs (k) | Nov | 55.597K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Trade Gap (bl) | Oct | $-75B | $-84.4B | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Exports | Oct | $267.9B | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/30 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Nov/30 | 217K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/23 Continued Claims (ml) | Nov/23 | 1910K | 1907K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/30 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/30 | 215K | 213K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Imports | Oct | $352.3B | ||
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Nov/29 | -2Bcf | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.500% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.550% | |||
| 11:30AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Dec/04 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/04 | 6.10% | ||
| 12:00PM | Dec-04 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec-04 | 6.81% | ||
| 4:30PM | Dez/4 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Dez/4 | $6.91T | ||
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