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Friendly Data Helping Erase Overnight Weakness
Friendly Data Helping Erase Overnight Weakness
Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was roughly 4bp increase in 10yr yields and an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS. ADP data did no harm at 8:15am, but bonds stayed near opening levels during the first 2 hours. Today's marquis data--ISM Services--came out much weaker than expected. That was all it took to spark a reversal that leaves 10yr yields almost 3bps lower heading into the PM hours. The eighth point loss in MBS has turned into an eighth point gain.
Moderately weaker overnight and little-changed after ADP data. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 5bps at 4.273
MBS up to "unchanged" after the ISM data. 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.24. MBS outperforming due to strength in the short end of the yield curve (i.e. 2yr yields are down 0.8bps on the day).
stronger still... MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.196
Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Dec 04 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Nov/29 | 6.69% | 6.86% | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Mortgage Applications | Nov/29 | 2.8% | 6.3% | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/29 | 213.9 | 208.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Refi Index | Nov/29 | 498.5 | 501.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/29 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/29 | 161.5 | 152.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Nov ADP jobs (k) | Nov | 146K | 150K | 233K |
| 8:45AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 8:45AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 54.9 | 55.3 | 54.1 |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 56.1 | 57 | 55 |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory orders mm (%) | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | Oct | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services Prices | Nov | 58.2 | 58.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services New Orders | Nov | 53.7 | 57.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services Employment | Nov | 51.5 | 53 | 53.0 |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Biz Activity | Nov | 53.7 | 57.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM N-Mfg PMI | Nov | 52.1 | 55.5 | 56 |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Nov/29 | 0.615M | 0.067M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 0.242M | -1.134M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 2.362M | 0.6M | 3.314M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Nov/29 | -0.248M | 0.457M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Nov/29 | 0.219M | 0.259M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 3.383M | 2M | 0.416M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Nov/29 | 1.635M | -1.886M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/29 | -5.073M | -1M | -1.844M |
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Nov/29 | 0.05M | -0.909M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.315% | 4.390% | ||
| 1:40PM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Dec 05 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Nov Challenger layoffs (k) | Nov | 55.597K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Trade Gap (bl) | Oct | $-75B | $-84.4B | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Exports | Oct | $267.9B | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/30 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Nov/30 | 217K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/23 Continued Claims (ml) | Nov/23 | 1910K | 1907K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/30 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/30 | 215K | 213K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Imports | Oct | $352.3B | ||
| 10:30AM | Nov/29 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Nov/29 | -2Bcf | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.500% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.550% | |||
| 11:30AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Dec/04 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/04 | 6.10% | ||
| 12:00PM | Dec-04 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec-04 | 6.81% | ||
| 4:30PM | Dez/4 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Dez/4 | $6.91T | ||
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