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Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
Without a doubt, it's been a frustrating and puzzling week for the bond market. Everyone knows that bonds have moved consistently higher in yield, but there is very little understanding and agreement about WHY that move has taken place. Europe had a rough week, but EU bonds didn't lose as much ground as US bonds, so we can't really stop there. We also know that econ data wasn't to blame (or if it was, traders bought bonds at first and then changed their minds later in the day--not typical behavior, to say the least). Beyond those considerations, we're left with guesses and possibilities that are much harder to substantiate and much more esoteric. These include things like year-end positioning constraints, a move to the sidelines before the Fed announcement, and curve trading driven by one of several factors.
Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Dec 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Export prices mm (%) | Nov | 0% | -0.2% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Import prices mm (%) | Nov | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Export Prices YoY | Nov | 0.8% | -0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Import Prices YoY | Nov | 1.3% | 0.8% | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/13 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Dec/13 | 482 | 482 | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/13 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Dec/13 | 589 | 589 | |
| Monday, Dec 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec NY Fed Manufacturing | Dec | 0.20 | 12 | 31.20 |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Composite PMI | Dec | 56.6 | 54.9 | |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Services PMI | Dec | 58.5 | 55.7 | 56.1 |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Dec | 48.3 | 49.8 | 49.7 |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 81 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.160% | 4.200% | ||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.250% | 4.300% | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 72 | |||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
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