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Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible that bonds wouldn't end up saying they had a bad week. That is certainly still the case, but after Friday, it's not as bad as it could have been. PCE inflation came in at 0.1% at the core level, month over month. If inflation repeated that performance for 12 months, annual inflation would be below the 2.0% target. Headline inflation is even lower and has been doing even better in terms of getting back to a target trajectory. Bond traders are largely able to price in PCE data because a good amount of it can be calculated from CPI/PPI which come out 2 weeks earlier. There was still enough of a surprise for 10yr yields to drop a quick 6bps and ultimately end the day 4bps lower than yesterday.
modestly weaker overnight, mostly after Europe opened. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.549
Weaker over the past 45 minutes. MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5bps at 4.564
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Dec 23 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov National Activity Index | Nov | -0.12 | -0.40 | |
| 9:30AM | Nov Build permits: change mm (%) | Nov | 5.2% | 6.1% | -0.4% |
| 9:30AM | Nov Building permits: number (ml) | Nov | 1.493M | 1.505M | 1.419M |
| 9:30AM | Nov Durables ex-transport (%) | Nov | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 9:30AM | Nov Durables ex-defense mm (%) | Nov | -0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 9:30AM | Nov Core CapEx (%) | Nov | 0.7% | -0.2% | |
| 9:30AM | Nov Durable goods (%) | Nov | -1.1% | -0.4% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 81 | |||
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Dec | 104.7 | 113 | 111.7 |
| 10:00AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.170% | 4.160% | ||
| 10:00AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.240% | 4.250% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov New Home Sales (%) (%) | Nov | 5.9% | -17.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov New Home Sales (ml) | Nov | 0.664M | 0.65M | 0.61M |
| 10:00AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 72 | |||
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs (%) | $50 million | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 65 | |||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction | 4.070% | 4.190% | ||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 48 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.280% | 4.270% | ||
| 1:00PM | 2-Year Note Auction | 4.335% | 4.274% | ||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 7:00PM | US Holiday | ||||
| Tuesday, Dec 24 | |||||
| 8:55AM | Dec/21 Redbook yy (%) | Dec/21 | 4.8% | ||
| 10:00AM | Dec Rich Fed, services index | Dec | 9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Dec Rich Fed comp. index | Dec | -9 | -14 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Rich Fed manuf shipments | Dec | -12 | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.170% | |||
| 11:30AM | 5-Year Note Auction | 4.197% | |||
| 11:30AM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 2:00PM | Christmas Eve | ||||
| 4:30PM | Dec/20 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Dec/20 | -4.7M | ||
| 7:00PM | US Holiday | ||||
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