Time For One of Those "Path of Least Resistance" Headlines

Time For One of Those "Path of Least Resistance" Headlines

Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this result in bond analysts dusting off phrases like "the path of least resistance"--typically only ever seen with selling pressure.  This path arguably began in early December after the jobs report failed to push 10yr yields sustainably below 4.17. One could even say it began with the jobs report in early October that singlehandedly obviated any urgency on the part of the Fed to address some sort of troubling slide in the labor market.  At the very least, the most recent leg of weakness can be thought of as the path of least resistance in light of last week's Fed announcement/dots/press conference. 

Market Movement Recap
09:04 AM

Slightly weaker overnight with more selling early in US session.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.624

Latest Video Analysis

Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.42 -0.04 10YR 4.585% -0.004% 12/24/2024 4:22PM EST
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this result in bond analysts dusting off phrases like "the path of least resistance"--typically only ever seen with selling pressure.  This path arguably began in early December after the jobs report failed to push 10yr yields sustainably below 4.17. One could even say it began with the jobs report in early October that singleha...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.10% +0.06% 15YR Fixed 6.45% +0.02% 12/23/2024
Holidays have inconsistent impacts on mortgage rates because holiday's have inconsistent impacts on the bond market (and rates are dictated by the bond market). Bond traders (the people buying and selling the bonds that ultimately determine mortgage rates) are people too.  They take vacations, or tack an extra day or two onto a scheduled holiday market closure to make for an extended holiday weekend. When more than a few traders are absent, the balance of remaining t...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Dec 24
8:55AM Dec/21 Redbook yy (%) Dec/21 5.9% 4.8%
10:00AM Dec Rich Fed, services index Dec 23 9
10:00AM Dec Rich Fed comp. index Dec -10 -9 -14
10:00AM Dec Rich Fed manuf shipments Dec -11 -12
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.140% 0.170%
11:30AM 5-Year Note Auction 4.478% 4.197%
11:30AM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
2:00PM Christmas Eve
4:30PM Dec/20 API weekly crude stocks (ml) Dec/20 -4.7M
7:00PM US Holiday
Wednesday, Dec 25
12:00AM Christmas Day
Read My Latest Newsletter
 "If anything on Fed day ends up having an impact on mortgage rates, it would have to be changes in the Fed's rate outlook and/or comments from Fed Chair Powell during the press conference that follows the rate announcement." That's how we closed out last week's newsletter , and there were certainly some changes! The gist was that mortgage rates often correlate very poorly with changes in... READ MORE