Time For One of Those "Path of Least Resistance" Headlines
Time For One of Those "Path of Least Resistance" Headlines
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this result in bond analysts dusting off phrases like "the path of least resistance"--typically only ever seen with selling pressure. This path arguably began in early December after the jobs report failed to push 10yr yields sustainably below 4.17. One could even say it began with the jobs report in early October that singlehandedly obviated any urgency on the part of the Fed to address some sort of troubling slide in the labor market. At the very least, the most recent leg of weakness can be thought of as the path of least resistance in light of last week's Fed announcement/dots/press conference.
Slightly weaker overnight with more selling early in US session. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.624
Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tuesday, Dec 24 | |||||
8:55AM | Dec/21 Redbook yy (%) | Dec/21 | 5.9% | 4.8% | |
10:00AM | Dec Rich Fed, services index | Dec | 23 | 9 | |
10:00AM | Dec Rich Fed comp. index | Dec | -10 | -9 | -14 |
10:00AM | Dec Rich Fed manuf shipments | Dec | -11 | -12 | |
11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.140% | 0.170% | ||
11:30AM | 5-Year Note Auction | 4.478% | 4.197% | ||
11:30AM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
2:00PM | Christmas Eve | ||||
4:30PM | Dec/20 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Dec/20 | -4.7M | ||
7:00PM | US Holiday | ||||
Wednesday, Dec 25 | |||||
12:00AM | Christmas Day |