Time For One of Those "Path of Least Resistance" Headlines
Time For One of Those "Path of Least Resistance" Headlines
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this result in bond analysts dusting off phrases like "the path of least resistance"--typically only ever seen with selling pressure. This path arguably began in early December after the jobs report failed to push 10yr yields sustainably below 4.17. One could even say it began with the jobs report in early October that singlehandedly obviated any urgency on the part of the Fed to address some sort of troubling slide in the labor market. At the very least, the most recent leg of weakness can be thought of as the path of least resistance in light of last week's Fed announcement/dots/press conference.
Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Dec 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec/21 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Dec/21 | 226.5K | 225.5K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/14 Continued Claims (ml) | Dec/14 | 1910K | 1880K | 1874K |
| 8:30AM | Dec/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/21 | 219K | 224K | 220K |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.260% | 4.230% | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.265% | 4.230% | ||
| 12:00PM | Dec/25 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/25 | 6% | 5.92% | |
| 12:00PM | Dec/25 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/25 | 6.85% | 6.72% | |
| 1:00PM | Nov Money Supply | Nov | $21.45T | $23.31T | |
| 1:00PM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.230% | 4.220% | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Year Note Auction | 4.532% | 4.183% | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:30PM | Dez/25 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Dez/25 | $6.89T | ||
| Friday, Dec 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Nov | 0.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Goods Trade Balance Adv | Nov | $-100.7B | $-99.08B | |
| 10:30AM | Dec/20 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Dec/20 | -125Bcf | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/20 | -2M | -0.934M | |
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Dec/20 | -1.131M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -0.7M | -3.18M | |
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Dec/20 | 0.108M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Dec/20 | -0.135M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Dec/20 | -0.048M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Dec/20 | -0.173M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -0.304M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -1M | 2.348M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/27 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Dec/27 | 483 | ||
| 1:00PM | Dec/27 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Dec/27 | 589 | ||