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Have You Heard The One About "Path of Least Resistance?"
Have You Heard The One About "Path of Least Resistance?"
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting right back to the messaging that's been in force for most of the month. Specifically, the path of least resistance is for longer term rates to move higher at a faster pace than short term rates. Things like the jobs report early in the month or the Fed announcement last week have contributed to this steepening effect (fancy jargon for 10yr yields moving higher faster than 2yr yields), but there are days where that momentum seems self-sustaining without any additional motivation. Today is just the latest example.
Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Dec 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec/21 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Dec/21 | 226.5K | 225.5K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/14 Continued Claims (ml) | Dec/14 | 1910K | 1880K | 1874K |
| 8:30AM | Dec/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/21 | 219K | 224K | 220K |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.260% | 4.230% | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.265% | 4.230% | ||
| 12:00PM | Dec/25 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/25 | 6% | 5.92% | |
| 12:00PM | Dec/25 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/25 | 6.85% | 6.72% | |
| 1:00PM | Nov Money Supply | Nov | $21.45T | $23.31T | |
| 1:00PM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.230% | 4.220% | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Year Note Auction | 4.532% | 4.183% | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:30PM | Dez/25 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Dez/25 | $6.88T | $6.89T | |
| Friday, Dec 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Nov | 0.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Goods Trade Balance Adv | Nov | $-100.7B | $-99.08B | |
| 10:30AM | Dec/20 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Dec/20 | -125Bcf | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/20 | -2M | -0.934M | |
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Dec/20 | -1.131M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -0.7M | -3.18M | |
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Dec/20 | 0.108M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Dec/20 | -0.135M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Dec/20 | -0.048M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Dec/20 | -0.173M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -0.304M | ||
| 11:00AM | Dec/20 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -1M | 2.348M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/27 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Dec/27 | 483 | ||
| 1:00PM | Dec/27 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Dec/27 | 589 | ||
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