Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction
Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction
The day began as so many days over the past few months with bonds moving higher in yield for reasons that transcend the typical economic data or news headlines. The Christmas holiday week is particularly random in terms of directionality due to low volume and liquidity. That ended up being beneficial today with a strong 7yr Treasury auction resulting in a favorable imbalance between buyers and sellers. Light liquidity/volume magnifies the impacts of such imbalances. The result was one of the biggest reactions to a 7yr Treasury auction in several years. That's not a high bar, but was nonetheless worth 4bps in 10yr yields and a move from weaker to stronger territory on the day.
Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Dec 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec/21 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Dec/21 | 226.5K | 225.5K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/14 Continued Claims (ml) | Dec/14 | 1910K | 1880K | 1874K |
| 8:30AM | Dec/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/21 | 219K | 224K | 220K |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.260% | 4.230% | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.265% | 4.230% | ||
| 12:00PM | Dec/25 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/25 | 6% | 5.92% | |
| 12:00PM | Dec/25 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/25 | 6.85% | 6.72% | |
| 1:00PM | Nov Money Supply | Nov | $21.45T | $23.31T | |
| 1:00PM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.230% | 4.220% | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Year Note Auction | 4.532% | 4.183% | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:30PM | Dez/25 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Dez/25 | $6.88T | $6.89T | |
| Friday, Dec 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Nov | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Nov | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Goods Trade Balance Adv | Nov | $-102.86B | $-100.7B | $-99.08B |
| 10:30AM | Dec/20 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Dec/20 | -93Bcf | -99Bcf | -125Bcf |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/20 | -4.237M | -2M | -0.934M |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Dec/20 | 0.995M | -1.131M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -1.694M | -0.7M | -3.18M |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -0.32M | 0.108M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Dec/20 | 0.178M | -0.135M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Dec/20 | 0.205M | -0.048M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Dec/20 | 0.051M | -0.173M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -0.062M | -0.304M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Dec/20 | 1.63M | -1M | 2.348M |
| 1:00PM | Dec/27 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Dec/27 | 483 | 483 | 483 |
| 1:00PM | Dec/27 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Dec/27 | 589 | 589 | |
