Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful
Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful
Bonds began the day in decent shape by pushing back against weakness during European hours. MBS were briefly in just-barely-positive territory in the first hour. Things deteriorated very slowly, but very steadily after that. It took the entire trading session for MBS to give up an eighth of a point. 10yr Treasuries had it worse, with yields moving back up near yesterday morning's highs. Chalk that up to ongoing "curve steepening" (fancy talk for 10yr yields rising faster than 2yr yields, and combine that notion with the fact that the average mortgage trades more like a 5yr Treasury these days). Modest volatility aside, volume and liquidity remained "holiday low." Next week brings different risks, mainly due to the chance that some big traders will be able to reposition bond portfolios after 2024 is officially over. These could go either way. The bigger volatility risk won't show up until the delayed jobs report on Jan 10th.
Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Dec 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Nov | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Nov | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Goods Trade Balance Adv | Nov | $-102.86B | $-100.7B | $-99.08B |
| 10:30AM | Dec/20 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Dec/20 | -93Bcf | -99Bcf | -125Bcf |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/20 | -4.237M | -2M | -0.934M |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Dec/20 | 0.995M | -1.131M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -1.694M | -0.7M | -3.18M |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -0.32M | 0.108M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Dec/20 | 0.178M | -0.135M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Dec/20 | 0.205M | -0.048M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Dec/20 | 0.051M | -0.173M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Dec/20 | -0.062M | -0.304M | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Dec/20 | 1.63M | -1M | 2.348M |
| 1:00PM | Dec/27 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Dec/27 | 483 | 483 | 483 |
| 1:00PM | Dec/27 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Dec/27 | 589 | 589 | |
| Monday, Dec 30 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Dec Chicago PMI | Dec | 42.8 | 40.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Pending Home Sales YoY | Nov | 5.4% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov Pending Home Sales (%) | Nov | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 10:30AM | Dec Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Dec | -2.7 | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 84 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.170% | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.240% | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 72 | |||
| 1:00PM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 75 | |||
