Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare
Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare
2 weeks ago today, we assumed the bond market would leave the office for the holidays and reassess during the first full week of 2025. For the most part, that's how things went down. 10yr yields could have ended the week anywhere between 4.5 and 4.6 depending on this morning's data. The higher levels got the nod due to slightly stronger ISM reading. The end. Bigger movement was always most likely to be on hold until and unless the early January data makes a strong, unified case for or against the economy. The early January data in question starts to roll in throughout the week, but as always, the biggest ticket is Friday's jobs report.
Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jan 03 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Manufacturing PMI | Dec | 49.3 | 48.4 | 48.4 |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Manufacturing Employment | Dec | 45.3 | 48 | 48.1 |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Dec | 52.5 | 50.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Dec | 52.5 | 51.7 | 50.3 |
| 10:30AM | Dec/27 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Dec/27 | -116Bcf | -127Bcf | -93Bcf |
| 11:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Jan/03 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Jan/03 | 588 | 589 | |
| 1:00PM | Jan/03 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Jan/03 | 482 | 483 | |
| Monday, Jan 06 | |||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Composite PMI | Dec | 55.4 | 56.6 | 54.9 |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Services PMI | Dec | 56.8 | 58.5 | 56.1 |
| 10:00AM | Nov Factory orders mm (%) | Nov | -0.4% | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Nov Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 6 to 10 yrs (%) | $25 million | |||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 72 | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 84 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.205% | 4.230% | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.110% | 4.135% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Year Note Auction | 4.332% | 4.117% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
