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Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
Bonds lost ground this morning despite a weaker S&P PMI headline. While there were some mitigating factors beyond the headline, we could just as easily conclude that traders are erring on the side of caution heading into a week of Treasury auction supply with another big jobs report on Friday--all while being forced to wait an unknown amount of time to find out where the rubber meets the road on fiscal policies that could further affect the outlook for the economy, inflation, and Treasury issuance. All told, today's volatility was mild at best and we didn't learn anything new about the bigger picture.
Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jan 07 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Dec LMI Logistics Managers Index Current | Dec | 57.3 | 58.4 | |
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Trade Gap (bl) | Nov | $-78.2B | $-78B | $-73.8B |
| 8:30AM | Nov Imports | Nov | $351.6B | $339.6B | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Exports | Nov | $273.4B | $265.7B | |
| 8:55AM | Jan/04 Redbook yy (%) | Jan/04 | 6.8% | 7.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov JOLTs Job Quits | Nov | 3.065M | 3.326M | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Biz Activity | Dec | 58.2 | 53.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI | Dec | 54.1 | 53.3 | 52.1 |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Employment | Dec | 51.4 | 51.4 | 51.5 |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Prices | Dec | 64.4 | 57.5 | 58.2 |
| 10:00AM | Nov USA JOLTS Job Openings | Nov | 8.098M | 7.70M | 7.744M |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services New Orders | Dec | 54.2 | 54.2 | 53.7 |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 85 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.245% | 4.280% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 4.68% | 4.235% | ||
| 4:30PM | Jan/03 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Jan/03 | -4.022M | -0.25M | -1.442M |
| Wednesday, Jan 08 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/03 | -12.6% | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/03 | 6.97% | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/03 | 174.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/03 | 136.7 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 MBA Refi Index | Jan/03 | 395.1 | ||
| 8:15AM | Dec ADP jobs (k) | Dec | 140K | 146K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/28 Continued Claims (ml) | Dec/28 | 1870K | 1844K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/04 | 218K | 211K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/04 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/04 | 223.25K | ||
| 8:30AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Dec Used Car Prices YoY | Dec | 0.2% | ||
| 9:00AM | Dec Used Car Prices MoM | Dec | 1.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Dec Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Dec | 16.5M | 16.5M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/03 | 0.041M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/03 | 0.5M | 7.717M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/03 | -0.416M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/03 | -0.142M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/03 | -0.959M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/03 | 0.099M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/03 | 0.5M | 6.406M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/03 | 0.323M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/03 | -0.25M | -1.178M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.195% | |||
| 12:00PM | Jan/03 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/03 | -39Bcf | -116Bcf | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.535% | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 3:00PM | Nov Consumer credit (bl) | Nov | $10.5B | $19.24B | |
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