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Orderly Move to Highest Yields in 8 Months
Orderly Move to Highest Yields in 8 Months
Bonds reacted logically to this morning's econ data at 10am. ISM Services' inflation component was one of the worst offenders, but higher job openings didn't help. The spike in yields was instantaneous but fairly well contained. Bonds managed to drift sideways for the entire session after that with no discernible reaction to the 10yr Treasury auction (not a surprise considering it was very close to expected levels). All told, yields inched up to the highest since April 2024, but in a very orderly way.
Not Great, But Could Have Been Worse
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jan 07 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Dec LMI Logistics Managers Index Current | Dec | 57.3 | 58.4 | |
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Trade Gap (bl) | Nov | $-78.2B | $-78B | $-73.8B |
| 8:30AM | Nov Imports | Nov | $351.6B | $339.6B | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Exports | Nov | $273.4B | $265.7B | |
| 8:55AM | Jan/04 Redbook yy (%) | Jan/04 | 6.8% | 7.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov JOLTs Job Quits | Nov | 3.065M | 3.326M | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Biz Activity | Dec | 58.2 | 53.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI | Dec | 54.1 | 53.3 | 52.1 |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Employment | Dec | 51.4 | 51.4 | 51.5 |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Prices | Dec | 64.4 | 57.5 | 58.2 |
| 10:00AM | Nov USA JOLTS Job Openings | Nov | 8.098M | 7.70M | 7.744M |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services New Orders | Dec | 54.2 | 54.2 | 53.7 |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 85 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.245% | 4.280% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 4.68% | 4.235% | ||
| 4:30PM | Jan/03 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Jan/03 | -4.022M | -0.25M | -1.442M |
| Wednesday, Jan 08 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/03 | -3.7% | -12.6% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/03 | 6.99% | 6.97% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/03 | 168.4 | 174.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/03 | 127.7 | 136.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/03 MBA Refi Index | Jan/03 | 401.1 | 395.1 | |
| 8:15AM | Dec ADP jobs (k) | Dec | 122K | 140K | 146K |
| 8:30AM | Dec Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Dec | 16.8M | 16.5M | 16.5M |
| 8:30AM | Dec/28 Continued Claims (ml) | Dec/28 | 1867K | 1870K | 1844K |
| 8:30AM | Jan/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/04 | 201K | 218K | 211K |
| 8:30AM | Jan/04 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/04 | 213K | 223.25K | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Dec Used Car Prices YoY | Dec | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 9:00AM | Dec Used Car Prices MoM | Dec | -0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Nov | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/03 | 0.045M | 0.041M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/03 | 6.33M | 1.5M | 7.717M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/03 | -0.632M | -0.416M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/03 | -2.502M | -0.142M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/03 | -0.081M | -0.959M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/03 | -0.167M | 0.099M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/03 | 6.071M | 1M | 6.406M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/03 | 0.278M | 0.323M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/03 | -0.959M | -0.6M | -1.178M |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.190% | 4.195% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jan/03 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/03 | -40Bcf | -51Bcf | -116Bcf |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.535% | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 3:00PM | Nov Consumer credit (bl) | Nov | $10.5B | $19.24B | |
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