No Data, No Volatility

No Data, No Volatility

Bonds were only open for half the day due to the national day of mourning for Jimmy Carter.  Overnight markets made for a slightly stronger start and those gains slowly eroded throughout the day.  MBS closed at perfectly unchanged levels and 10yr yields were a hair lower as Treasuries continue "healing" after this week's auction cycle.  Friday morning brings the jobs report, which is just as much of a potential volatility flash point as it always is.

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No Data, No Volatility

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.17 -0.01 10YR 4.684% -0.017% 1/9/2025 2:30PM EST
Trading remains slow, sparse, and mostly inconsequential.  MBS are still 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but down an eighth of a point from the AM highs.  Lenders who released rate sheets at the time of those highs (before 10am ET) could technically justify a small, negative reprice. 10yr yields are still down 2bps on the day at 4.68, but up from lows of 4.644. Selling seems to have leveled off for now after the most recent weakness.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.15% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 6.51% -0.03% 1/9/2025
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds were on a shortened schedule today due to the federal day of mourning for Jimmy Carter.  As such, volume and volatility were in short supply. Still, overnight market movement allowed the average lender to offer a microscopic improvement versus yesterday. Tomorrow (Friday, Jan 9th) is a different story.  The big jobs report comes out at 8:30am ET. Bonds routinely react to this report more than any ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jan 10
8:30AM U-6 Unemployment Rate 7.8%
8:30AM Dec Unemployment rate mm (%) Dec 4.2% 4.2%
8:30AM Dec Government Payrolls Dec 33K
8:30AM Dec Average earnings mm (%) Dec 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4% 4%
8:30AM Dec Average workweek hrs (hr) Dec 34.3 34.3
8:30AM Dec Private Payrolls (k) Dec 135K 194K
8:30AM Dec Non Farm Payrolls Dec 160K 227K
8:30AM Dec Manufacturing payrolls (k) Dec 5K 22K
8:30AM Dec Participation Rate Dec 62.5%
10:00AM Jan U Mich conditions Jan 75.1
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jan 2.8%
10:00AM Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jan 73.8 74.0
10:00AM Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Jan 73.3
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jan 3%
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
1:00PM Jan/10 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Jan/10 482
1:00PM Jan/10 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Jan/10 588
4:30PM Jan/08 Central Bank Balance Sheet Jan/08 $6.85T
Monday, Jan 13
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
11:00AM Dec Consumer Inflation Expectations Dec 3%
11:30AM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 84
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.205%
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.110%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 72
12:00PM Dec Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy Dec 0.342B
12:00PM Dec Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn Dec 1.760B
12:00PM Dec Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat Dec 1.98B
2:00PM Dec Federal budget, $ (bl) Dec $-367B
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Even as most of the world has spent the past two days thinking or saying "I can't believe it's 2025 already," mortgage rates won't get back from vacation until next week.  They managed to make it through the entire holiday season without any major drama. That was in sharp contrast to the preceding month which saw a decent drop heading into early December and a sharp spike that accelerated aft... READ MORE