Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree

Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree

Today's jobs report was much stronger than expected and there were no compelling counterpoints to give traders any second thoughts.  As such, traders proceeded logically by dumping bonds.  Trading levels hit the 3pm close very close to the levels seen immediately after the jobs report and there wasn't much fanfare in between. All in all, a reaction that was as straightforward as it was unpleasant.

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Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 97.55 -0.62 10YR 4.751% +0.067% 1/10/2025 5:00PM EST
Different lenders may approach this scenario differently depending on when they priced this morning and how conservative the rate sheet was.  Bottom line, MBS are down a quarter point from the post-NFP highs last seen just after 10:30 am ET.  Jumpier lenders who priced near those highs could be considering negative reprices. 10yr yields are up 8.2bps at 4.766.   There are now new headlines or data points driving this weakness.  It has been gradu...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.24% +0.09% 15YR Fixed 6.53% +0.02% 1/10/2025
Mortgage rates were already at 6 month highs earlier this week so it didn't take much of a push to send them up to new 7 month highs today. The push in question came from today's hotly-anticipated jobs report. No other economic report has as much consistent potential to cause volatility for interest rates.  As such, when today's job creation headline came in at much higher levels than expected, it was an easy decision for traders to push rates to higher levels. The av...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jan 10
8:30AM U-6 Unemployment Rate 7.5% 7.8%
8:30AM Dec Unemployment rate mm (%) Dec 4.1% 4.2% 4.2%
8:30AM Dec Government Payrolls Dec 33K 33K
8:30AM Dec Average earnings mm (%) Dec 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.9% 4% 4%
8:30AM Dec Average workweek hrs (hr) Dec 34.3 34.3 34.3
8:30AM Dec Private Payrolls (k) Dec 223K 135K 194K
8:30AM Dec Non Farm Payrolls Dec 256K 160K 227K
8:30AM Dec Manufacturing payrolls (k) Dec -13K 5K 22K
8:30AM Dec Participation Rate Dec 62.5% 62.5%
10:00AM Jan U Mich conditions Jan 77.9 75.1
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jan 3.3% 2.8%
10:00AM Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jan 73.2 73.8 74.0
10:00AM Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Jan 70.2 73.3
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jan 3.3% 3%
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
12:00PM Dec Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy Dec 3.1B 0.342B
12:00PM Dec Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn Dec 12.074B 1.760B
12:00PM Dec Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat Dec 1.57B 1.98B
1:00PM Jan/10 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Jan/10 480 482
1:00PM Jan/10 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Jan/10 584 589
4:30PM Jan/08 Central Bank Balance Sheet Jan/08 $6.85T $6.85T
Monday, Jan 13
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
11:00AM Dec Consumer Inflation Expectations Dec 3%
11:30AM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 84
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.205%
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.110%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 72
2:00PM Dec Federal budget, $ (bl) Dec $-367B
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Mortgage rates weren't having a great week in the first place.  As of Wednesday, the average lender was already up to the highest levels since June 2024.  But up until that point, there hadn't been too much volatility.   The rising rate trend kicked into higher gear after Friday morning's jobs report.   Officially known as The Employment Situation, the jobs repo... READ MORE