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If You Needed Proof That Inflation Data is Back in Fashion...
If You Needed Proof That Inflation Data is Back in Fashion...
On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market to inflation data. Said shift was frequently reinforced in subsequent speeches by other Fed members. Traders were left to decide how much they would shift their own playbooks--something that was especially difficult after last week's big jobs report. Today's CPI was arguably less of a departure from forecasts than the jobs report, but the market reaction has been much more pronounced (in a good way).
stronger overnight with additional gains after CPI data. MBS up half a point and 10yr down 12.3bps at 4.678
Why Does it Feel Like Bonds Can't Win?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/10 | 162 | 127.7000 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/10 | 33.3% | -3.7% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/10 | 224.4 | 168.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 MBA Refi Index | Jan/10 | 575.6 | 401.1000 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/10 | 7.09% | 6.99% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec CPI index, nsa | Dec | 315.61 | 315.61 | 315.49 |
| 8:30AM | Dec m/m Headline CPI (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Dec m/m CORE CPI (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Dec y/y Headline CPI (%) | Dec | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Dec y/y CORE CPI (%) | Dec | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jan NY Fed Manufacturing | Jan | -12.60 | 3 | 0.20 |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core CPI index, sa | Dec | 317.685 | 316.441 | |
| 9:20AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/10 | 5.852M | 2.60M | 6.33M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/10 | -0.021M | -0.167M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/10 | -0.255M | 0.045M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/10 | 0.765M | -2.502M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/10 | -1.961M | -1.6M | -0.959M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/10 | 3.077M | 1.1M | 6.071M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/10 | 0.646M | -0.632M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/10 | 0.397M | -0.081M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/10 | -1.304M | 0.278M | |
| 11:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.210% | 4.190% | ||
| 12:00PM | Fed Golsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Jan 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Export prices mm (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Export Prices YoY | Dec | 0.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/04 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/04 | 1870K | 1867K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Import prices mm (%) | Dec | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Import Prices YoY | Dec | 1.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/11 | 210K | 201K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Business Conditions | Jan | 30.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/11 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/11 | 213K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jan | 31.2 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed New Orders | Jan | -4.3 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Jan | 18.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Business Index | Jan | -5 | -16.4 | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | Dec | 0.2% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Sales YoY | Dec | 3.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Employment | Jan | 6.6 | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Sales (%) | Dec | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Nov | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Business Inventories (% ) | Nov | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan NAHB housing market indx | Jan | 45 | 46 | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/10 | -260Bcf | -40Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.245% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.240% | |||
| 12:00PM | Jan/16 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/16 | 6.14% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jan/16 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/16 | 9.93% | ||
| 4:30PM | Jan/15 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jan/15 | $6.85T | ||
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