Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful

Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful

Friday may as well have been a 4th weekend day for the bond market.  Volume and liquidity were obviously in holiday mode.  Trading levels were basically flat, although it might not feel that way if you're seeing MBS prices end the day down more than an eighth of a point.  It's unclear whether we're seeing actual weakness at the end of the day or an incidental expression of extremely thin liquidity. Even if it's "real," it's still not bad considering where we were on Tuesday afternoon.  

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Slightly Weaker Drift, But Largely Uneventful

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.62 +0.26 10YR 4.552% -0.074% 1/21/2025 10:45AM EST
10yr Treasuries just edged back up to perfectly unchanged levels at 4.613.  While they haven't spent much time in weaker territory today, they're up from AM lows under 4.57. MBS have also given up plenty of ground since then with 5.5 coupons currently down 3 ticks (.09) at the lowest levels of the day.  Most lenders are now seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness from AM rate sheet print times.  This means negative reprices are still technically pos...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.08% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.51% +0.01% 1/21/2025
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and Friday was the least active day of the week for bonds.  There were no major economic reports to cause rapid changes in trading levels. As such, mortgage rates started out very close to the levels seen yesterday and most lenders didn't make any mid-day changes. The absence of any significant movement is a victory, of sorts, in light of the ground covered over the past 2 days (the best 2-day improvement since November). O...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jan 21
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 84
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.215% 4.225%
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.165% 4.180%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 72
1:00PM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 85
1:00PM 52-Week Bill Auction 4.025% 4.070%
1:00PM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 48
1:00PM 42-Day Bill Auction (%) 4.250% 4.210%
Wednesday, Jan 22
7:00AM Jan/17 Mortgage Market Index Jan/17 224.4
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Refi Index Jan/17 575.6
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Mortgage Applications Jan/17 33.3%
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) Jan/17 7.09%
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Purchase Index Jan/17 162
8:55AM Jan/18 Redbook yy (%) Jan/18 4%
10:00AM Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) Dec 0% 0.3%
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction (%) 4.210%
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
1:00PM 20-Year Bond Auction 4.686%
4:30PM Jan/17 API weekly crude stocks (ml) Jan/17 -2.6M
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Last week's big to-do was the jobs report, which sent rates sharply higher. This week's inflation data had a chance to add fuel to that fire or put it out. The inflation report in question was the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition to being one of the two most important monthly economic reports, it also turned out to be quite the little firefighter this time around. The following chart ... READ MORE