Stephen Heston
Broker NMLS #1930964
Aspire Mortgage Solutions LLC NMLS #2481498
P: (509) 202-4424
www.aspiremortgagesolutions.com
102 W Main St. #3
Pullman WA 99163
License:
2481498
1930964
Ask Me a Question

Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains

This morning's commentary focused on a bond rally in response to an absence of heavy-handed specificity in Trump's initial salvo of executive orders--specifically with respect to trade policy. In not so many words, massive, immediate tariffs have been referred to agencies for research and comment. Bonds (via futures) rallied on the news yesterday and into the overnight session.  Without any new sources of inspiration today, the overnight gains remained intact and volatility was generally absent. 

Market Movement Recap
09:52 AM

Moderately stronger overnight with implied gains on Monday in Treasury futures.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down roughly 5bps at 4.577

01:32 PM

Roughly an eighth of a point below best levels.  MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.577

03:43 PM

Calmly holding gains.  MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.564

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.55 +0.20 10YR 4.583% -0.043% 1/21/2025 5:00PM EST
Bonds Open Stronger Thanks to Tariff Uncertainty
Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs.  This was one of the key areas of focus for financial markets.  While there are few different ways it could be traded, one of the simplest was from an inflation standpoint. With specifics TBD, bonds breathed a modest sigh of relief on inflation implications.  There was an immediate reaction at 8:30am yesterday (in futures) following WSJ's rep...   READ MORE
Alert:
MBS Down to New Lows in Late Trading
Alert:
Down Almost a Quarter Point From AM Highs
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.08% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.51% +0.01% 1/21/2025
Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders
Mortgage rates are driven predominantly by the bond market and bonds were able to clear up a few curiosities on inauguration day.  Specifically, traders expected multiple executive orders with several focusing on proposed tariffs.  While history suggests the conventional wisdom may be faulty, the general belief is that tariffs increase inflation. Considering inflation correlates with higher rates, there was some relief in rates when the executive orders concernin...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jan 21
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 84
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.215% 4.225%
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.165% 4.180%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 72
1:00PM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 85
1:00PM 52-Week Bill Auction 4.025% 4.070%
1:00PM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 48
1:00PM 42-Day Bill Auction (%) 4.250% 4.210%
Wednesday, Jan 22
7:00AM Jan/17 Mortgage Market Index Jan/17 224.4
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Refi Index Jan/17 575.6
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Mortgage Applications Jan/17 33.3%
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) Jan/17 7.09%
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Purchase Index Jan/17 162
8:55AM Jan/18 Redbook yy (%) Jan/18 4%
10:00AM Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) Dec 0% 0.3%
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction (%) 4.210%
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
1:00PM 20-Year Bond Auction 4.686%
4:30PM Jan/17 API weekly crude stocks (ml) Jan/17 -2.6M
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Rates Recover After Tame Inflation Data
1/17/2025 6:23PM
Last week's big to-do was the jobs report, which sent rates sharply higher. This week's inflation data had a chance to add fuel to that fire or put it out. The inflation report in question was the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition to being one of the two most important monthly economic reports, it also turned out to be quite the little firefighter this time around. The following chart ... READ MORE
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Stephen Heston
Broker NMLS #1930964
Aspire Mortgage Solutions LLC NMLS #2481498
P: (509) 202-4424
www.aspiremortgagesolutions.com
102 W Main St. #3
Pullman WA 99163
License:
2481498
1930964
Ask Me a Question
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