Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains

Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains

This morning's commentary focused on a bond rally in response to an absence of heavy-handed specificity in Trump's initial salvo of executive orders--specifically with respect to trade policy. In not so many words, massive, immediate tariffs have been referred to agencies for research and comment. Bonds (via futures) rallied on the news yesterday and into the overnight session.  Without any new sources of inspiration today, the overnight gains remained intact and volatility was generally absent. 

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.57 -0.01 10YR 4.570% -0.008% 1/22/2025 5:58AM EST
Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs.  This was one of the key areas of focus for financial markets.  While there are few different ways it could be traded, one of the simplest was from an inflation standpoint. With specifics TBD, bonds breathed a modest sigh of relief on inflation implications.  There was an immediate reaction at 8:30am yesterday (in futures) following WSJ's rep...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.08% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.51% +0.01% 1/21/2025
Mortgage rates are driven predominantly by the bond market and bonds were able to clear up a few curiosities on inauguration day.  Specifically, traders expected multiple executive orders with several focusing on proposed tariffs.  While history suggests the conventional wisdom may be faulty, the general belief is that tariffs increase inflation. Considering inflation correlates with higher rates, there was some relief in rates when the executive orders concernin...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jan 22
7:00AM Jan/17 Mortgage Market Index Jan/17 224.6 224.4
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Refi Index Jan/17 558.8 575.6
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Mortgage Applications Jan/17 0.1% 33.3%
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) Jan/17 7.02% 7.09%
7:00AM Jan/17 MBA Purchase Index Jan/17 163.0 162.0
8:55AM Jan/18 Redbook yy (%) Jan/18 4%
10:00AM Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) Dec 0% 0.3%
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction (%) 4.210%
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
1:00PM 20-Year Bond Auction 4.686%
4:30PM Jan/17 API weekly crude stocks (ml) Jan/17 -2.6M
Thursday, Jan 23
8:30AM Jan/18 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) Jan/18 212.75K
8:30AM Jan/18 Jobless Claims (k) Jan/18 220K 217K
8:30AM Jan/11 Continued Claims (ml) Jan/11 1860K 1859K
10:30AM Jan/17 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf Jan/17 -258Bcf
11:00AM Jan/17 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Jan/17 -0.255M
11:00AM Jan/17 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change Jan/17 -1.304M
11:00AM Jan/17 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jan/17 -1.961M
11:00AM Jan/17 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change Jan/17 -0.021M
11:00AM Jan/17 EIA Distillate Stocks Change Jan/17 3.077M
11:00AM Jan/17 EIA Gasoline Production Change Jan/17 0.397M
11:00AM Jan/17 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change Jan/17 0.765M
11:00AM Jan/17 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change Jan/17 5.852M
11:00AM Jan/17 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change Jan/17 0.646M
11:30AM 4-Week Bill Auction 4.240%
11:30AM 8-Week Bill Auction 4.235%
12:00PM Jan/23 15-Year Mortgage Rate Jan/23 6.27%
12:00PM Jan/23 30-Year Mortgage Rate Jan/23 7.04%
1:00PM 10-Year TIPS Auction 2.071%
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 20
4:30PM Jan/22 Central Bank Balance Sheet Jan/22 $6.83T
Read My Latest Newsletter
Last week's big to-do was the jobs report, which sent rates sharply higher. This week's inflation data had a chance to add fuel to that fire or put it out. The inflation report in question was the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition to being one of the two most important monthly economic reports, it also turned out to be quite the little firefighter this time around. The following chart ... READ MORE