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Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and the Waiting Game
Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and the Waiting Game
The extreme dearth of big ticket economic data was no mystery heading into the current week. Traders shouldn't have been surprised and they are doing a great job of showing it. Bonds traded ruthlessly flat yesterday and only slightly less so today. In the bigger picture, yields look to have bounced at 4.57 but also to be holding mostly sideways as they await inspiration for the next big move. For those who must connect movement to events, we can't disprove that traders erred on the side of selling ahead of today's 20yr bond auction, and were then more willing to buy after the reasonably decent auction results.
sideways to slightly stronger overnight, but losing ground since 9am ET. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4 bps at 4.602
20yr auction was relatively strong, but isn't helping much. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.603
Recovering a bit in the hours after the auction. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.591
Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and the Waiting Game
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 22 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/17 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/17 | 224.6 | 224.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/17 MBA Refi Index | Jan/17 | 558.8 | 575.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/17 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/17 | 0.1% | 33.3% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/17 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/17 | 7.02% | 7.09% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/17 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/17 | 163.0 | 162.0 | |
| 8:55AM | Jan/18 Redbook yy (%) | Jan/18 | 4.5% | 4% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Dec | -0.1% | 0% | 0.3% |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.205% | 4.210% | ||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Year Bond Auction | 4.900% | 4.686% | ||
| 4:30PM | Jan/17 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Jan/17 | 1M | -2.6M | |
| Thursday, Jan 23 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan/18 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/18 | 212.75K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/18 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/18 | 220K | 217K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/11 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/11 | 1860K | 1859K | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/17 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/17 | -258Bcf | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/17 | -0.255M | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/17 | -1.304M | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/17 | -1.961M | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/17 | -0.021M | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/17 | 3.077M | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/17 | 0.397M | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/17 | 0.765M | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/17 | 5.852M | ||
| 11:00AM | Jan/17 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/17 | 0.646M | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.240% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.235% | |||
| 12:00PM | Jan/23 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/23 | 6.27% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jan/23 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/23 | 7.04% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.071% | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 20 | |||
| 4:30PM | Jan/22 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jan/22 | $6.83T | ||
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