Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week

Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week

If bonds had continued to sell off today, it would have made the week slightly more interesting, but even then, we would still be well under the high yields seen last week.  As it stands, the combination of this morning's economic data and an undetermined source of inspiration a short while later left bonds in modestly stronger territory, thus making for a very flat week in the bigger picture.  This is neither bad nor good, and also not a huge surprise given the very light data calendar.  There are bigger-ticket events in the week ahead, including a Fed announcement (just tuning in for the press conference), GDP (1st look at Q4), and PCE inflation. 

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Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.48 +0.16 10YR 4.620% -0.022% 1/24/2025 5:00PM EST
There's no new cause for concern and nothing dramatic happening in the bond market. Recent trading in Treasuries has been very flat for the past hour.  A few trades have come through in 5.5 UMBS that bring prices down an eighth of a point from mid-day highs, although we're still up nearly an eighth on the day. Lenders who have not repriced at all today are at little to no risk of negative reprices. Some very slight negative reprice risk can't be ruled out for ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.11% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.51% -0.01% 1/24/2025
While there were only 4 business days instead of the customary 5, it's been an intensely boring week for mortgage rates .  Tuesday started out right where Friday left off. From there, Thursday brought the only noticeable change with the average lender moving up to the highest levels in just over a week. Friday saw a return to the boring trend with an almost imperceptible improvement, splitting the difference between yesterday's highs and Tue/Wed lows.   Th...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jan 24
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Composite PMI Jan 52.4 55.4
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Manuf. PMI Jan 50.1 49.7 49.4
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Services PMI Jan 52.8 56.5 56.8
10:00AM Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Jan 69.3 70.2 73.3
10:00AM Jan U Mich conditions Jan 74.0 77.9 75.1
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jan 3.2% 3.3% 3%
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jan 3.3% 3.3% 2.8%
10:00AM Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jan 71.1 73.2 74.0
10:00AM Dec Existing home sales (ml) Dec 4.24M 4.19M 4.15M
10:00AM Dec Exist. home sales % chg (%) Dec 2.2% 4.8%
1:00PM Jan/24 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Jan/24 472 478
1:00PM Jan/24 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Jan/24 576 580
Monday, Jan 27
8:00AM Dec Build permits: change mm (%) Dec -0.7% 5.2%
8:00AM Dec Building permits: number (ml) Dec 1.483M 1.493M
8:30AM Dec National Activity Index Dec -0.12
10:00AM Dec New Home Sales (ml) Dec 0.67M 0.664M
10:00AM Dec New Home Sales (%) (%) Dec 5.9%
10:30AM Jan Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Jan 3.4
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.165%
11:30AM 2-Year Note Auction 4.335%
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 72
1:00PM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 84
1:00PM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.215%
1:00PM 5-Year Note Auction 4.478%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
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It turned out to be an intensely boring week for mortgage rates. The average lender stayed right in line with last week until moving slightly higher on Thursday and slightly lower on Friday.   This isn't too much of a surprise. Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are most easily influenced by major economic reports--something in extremely short supply this week.  Next week bri... READ MORE