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Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
Bonds had a mixed reaction to this morning's Durable Goods data with stronger internals offsetting a weaker headline. Sellers were in control for most of the AM hours, but momentum shifted with the 7yr Treasury auction. All in all, it was a solid showing in spite of the rebound in equities markets (something we only care about today because it was a huge consideration yesterday). Looking ahead, tomorrow's only notable agenda item is the Powell press conference at 2:30pm. The announcement itself can't really offer any tradeable news. Even Powell would be hard pressed to shake things up too much considering the mildly positive cue from inflation data and the ongoing policy uncertainty as a counterbalance. That said, one can never truly rule out a volatile reaction to a Powell presser, but the odds are certainly lower this time around.
Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jan 28 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Durables ex-transport (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Durables ex-defense mm (%) | Dec | -2.4% | -0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core CapEx (%) | Dec | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Durable goods (%) | Dec | -2.2% | 0.6% | -1.1% |
| 8:55AM | Jan/25 Redbook yy (%) | Jan/25 | 4.9% | 4.5% | |
| 9:00AM | Nov FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Nov | 4.2% | 4.5% | |
| 9:00AM | Nov FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Nov | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 9:00AM | Nov House Price Index | Nov | 433.4 | 432.3 | |
| 9:00AM | Nov CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Nov | -0.1% | -0.2% | |
| 9:00AM | Nov Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Nov | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Jan | 104.1 | 105.6 | 104.7 |
| 10:00AM | Jan Rich Fed comp. index | Jan | -4 | -8 | -10 |
| 10:00AM | Jan Rich Fed manuf shipments | Jan | -9 | -11 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Rich Fed, services index | Jan | 4 | 23 | |
| 10:30AM | Jan Dallas Fed Services Index | Jan | 7.4 | 9.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Jan Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | Jan | 5.7 | 13.8 | |
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 85 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.098% | 0.140% | ||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.260% | 4.250% | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 1:00PM | 7-Year Note Auction | 4.457% | 4.532% | ||
| 1:00PM | Dec Money Supply | Dec | $21.53T | $21.45T | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:30PM | Jan/24 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Jan/24 | 2.86M | 3.7M | 1M |
| Wednesday, Jan 29 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/24 | -2% | 0.1% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/24 | 7.02% | 7.02% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/24 | 162.4 | 163 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Refi Index | Jan/24 | 520.9 | 558.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/24 | 220.0 | 224.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Dec | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Dec | -0.5% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Goods Trade Balance Adv | Dec | $-122.11B | $-105.4B | $-102.86B |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 2.957M | 1.5M | 2.332M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/24 | -0.044M | -0.043M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/24 | 0.028M | -0.473M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/24 | -4.994M | -2.1M | -3.07M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 0.326M | -0.148M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/24 | 3.463M | 3.2M | -1.017M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/24 | 0.532M | 0.184M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 0.128M | 0.068M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/24 | -0.333M | -1.125M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.190% | 4.205% | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
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