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Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
Bonds had a mixed reaction to this morning's Durable Goods data with stronger internals offsetting a weaker headline. Sellers were in control for most of the AM hours, but momentum shifted with the 7yr Treasury auction. All in all, it was a solid showing in spite of the rebound in equities markets (something we only care about today because it was a huge consideration yesterday). Looking ahead, tomorrow's only notable agenda item is the Powell press conference at 2:30pm. The announcement itself can't really offer any tradeable news. Even Powell would be hard pressed to shake things up too much considering the mildly positive cue from inflation data and the ongoing policy uncertainty as a counterbalance. That said, one can never truly rule out a volatile reaction to a Powell presser, but the odds are certainly lower this time around.
Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 29 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/24 | -2% | 0.1% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/24 | 7.02% | 7.02% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/24 | 162.4 | 163 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Refi Index | Jan/24 | 520.9 | 558.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/24 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/24 | 220.0 | 224.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Dec | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Dec | -0.5% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Goods Trade Balance Adv | Dec | $-122.11B | $-105.4B | $-102.86B |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 2.957M | 1.5M | 2.332M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/24 | -0.044M | -0.043M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/24 | 0.028M | -0.473M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/24 | -4.994M | -2.1M | -3.07M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 0.326M | -0.148M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/24 | 3.463M | 3.2M | -1.017M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/24 | 0.532M | 0.184M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 0.128M | 0.068M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/24 | -0.333M | -1.125M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.190% | 4.205% | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Jan 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 3.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP deflator (%) | Q4 | 2.5% | 1.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 2.6% | 3.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/25 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/25 | 213.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final | Q4 | 3.7% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q4 | 1.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/25 | 220K | 223K | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.5% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/18 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/18 | 1890K | 1899K | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Pending Home Sales YoY | Dec | 6.9% | ||
| 10:00AM | Dec Pending Home Sales (%) | Dec | 0% | 2.2% | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/24 | -317Bcf | -233Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.265% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.250% | |||
| 12:00PM | Jan/30 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/30 | 6.16% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jan/30 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/30 | 6.96% | ||
| 4:30PM | Jan/29 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jan/29 | $6.83T | ||
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