Stronger Start + Early Weakness
Stronger Start + Early Weakness
Bonds rallied in overnight trading. The move was exceptionally linear, without any obvious regard for movement in equities or European bonds. Yields were at session lows ahead of the 8:30am data, but have moved steadily higher afterword. The early weakness almost perfectly offsets the overnight gains, leaving bonds close to unchanged heading into the PM hours.
Slightly weaker after data but still in positive territory. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.513
Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jan 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP deflator (%) | Q4 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jan/25 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/25 | 212.5K | 213.5K | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final | Q4 | 4.2% | 3.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.3% | 1.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/25 | 207K | 220K | 223K |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jan/18 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/18 | 1858K | 1890K | 1899K |
| 10:00AM | Dec Pending Home Sales YoY | Dec | -5.0% | 6.9% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Pending Home Sales (%) | Dec | -5.5% | 0% | 2.2% |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/24 | -321Bcf | -313Bcf | -233Bcf |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.250% | 4.265% | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.240% | 4.250% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jan/30 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/30 | 6.12% | 6.16% | |
| 12:00PM | Jan/30 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/30 | 6.95% | 6.96% | |
| 4:30PM | Jan/29 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jan/29 | $6.82T | $6.83T | |
| Friday, Jan 31 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Employment Benefits qq (%) | Q4 | 0.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Employment costs (%) | Q4 | 0.9% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Personal Income (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Employment Wages qq (%) | Q4 | 0.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Dec | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.6% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE price index mm (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Jan Chicago PMI | Jan | 40 | 36.9 | |
| 1:00PM | Jan/31 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Jan/31 | 472 | ||
| 1:00PM | Jan/31 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Jan/31 | 576 | ||