In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways
In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways
If you are following along with intraday market movement and not taking breaks to zoom the chart out, volatility seems to be rather extreme at the moment. Bonds began the day in stronger territory, bounced back to unchanged in the first 30 minutes, rallied sharply after data, gave up the rally almost immediately thereafter and then continued selling back to unchanged levels just before the 3pm CME close. All of the above transpired in a 9bp range in 10yr yields, but moved of it was in a 4bp range. Tariff headlines are certainly good for some of that in-range volatility, but we have yet to see them set any big picture tones. Today's best attempt was the selling spree just after 10am ET following news that tariffs on Mexico would be delayed until March 1st.
Slightly stronger overnight as stocks swoon on tariff announcements. MBS up 1 ticks and 10y down 2.9bps at 4.508
Lots of volatility surrounding 10am ISM data and US/Mexico tariff pause. MBS now down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.526, both near the day's weakest levels.
Mostly holding a fairly narrow range, but currently at the lower end of that range with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr yields down 0.3bps at 4.534
Just off weakest levels of the day. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.54
In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Feb 03 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jan | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.4 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jan | 50.3 | 45.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Jan | 55.1 | 52.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jan | 54.9 | 52.6 | 52.5 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jan | 50.9 | 49.8 | 49.3 |
| 10:00AM | Dec Construction spending (%) | Dec | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 72 | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 84 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.22% | 4.195% | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.155% | 4.14% | ||
| 12:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
| 3:00PM | Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%) | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| Tuesday, Feb 04 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Jan LMI Logistics Managers Index Current | Jan | 57.3 | ||
| 8:55AM | Feb/01 Redbook yy (%) | Feb/01 | 4.9% | ||
| 10:00AM | Dec USA JOLTS Job Openings | Dec | 8M | 8.098M | |
| 10:00AM | Dec JOLTs Job Quits | Dec | 3.065M | ||
| 10:00AM | Dec Factory orders mm (%) | Dec | -0.8% | -0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | Dec | 0.2% | ||
| 10:10AM | Feb IBD economic optimism | Feb | 53.0 | 51.9 | |
| 11:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 85 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.260% | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Jan/31 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Jan/31 | 2.86M | ||
| 7:30PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
