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Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range
Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range
The only moderately inconvenient part of the day was the morning hours as bonds lost ground overnight and started out weaker in domestic trading. That didn't last long. Yields began falling just after 9am and continued lower after today's biggest economic report came out weaker than expected (job openings at 7.6m vs 8.0m f'cast). Oil prices took a temporary hit from newswires regarding Trumping increasing pressure on Iran, but as that price spike leveled off, bonds continued to improve. Some news outlets suggest today's gains had something to do with the Mexico/Canada tariff pause, but that news was out well before the AM weakness. The simplest view is that bonds opted to maintain the prevailing range which has seen 10yr yields hold within 6bps of 4.53 since January 24th.
Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 05 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/31 | 7.02% | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 MBA Refi Index | Jan/31 | 520.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/31 | 162.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/31 | 220.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/31 | -2% | ||
| 8:15AM | Jan ADP jobs (k) | Jan | 150K | 122K | |
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Trade Gap (bl) | Dec | $-96.6B | $-78.2B | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Exports | Dec | $273.4B | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec Imports | Dec | $351.6B | ||
| 9:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Services PMI | Jan | 52.8 | 56.8 | |
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Composite PMI | Jan | 52.4 | 55.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jan | 54.3 | 54.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jan | 16.8M | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Biz Activity | Jan | 58.2 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services Prices | Jan | 64.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services Employment | Jan | 51.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services New Orders | Jan | 54.2 | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/31 | 0.128M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/31 | -0.044M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/31 | -0.9M | 2.957M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/31 | 0.532M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/31 | 0.028M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/31 | -2.1M | -4.994M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/31 | 3.2M | 3.463M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/31 | 0.326M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/31 | -0.333M | ||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.190% | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 7:30PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 06 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Jan Challenger layoffs (k) | Jan | 38.792K | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final | Q4 | 1.4% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/25 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/25 | 1870K | 1858K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/01 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/01 | 213K | 207K | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q4 | 3.4% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/01 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Feb/01 | 212.5K | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/31 | -321Bcf | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.240% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.250% | |||
| 12:00PM | Feb/06 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Feb/06 | 6.12% | ||
| 12:00PM | Feb/06 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Feb/06 | 6.95% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 3:30PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Feb/05 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Feb/05 | $6.82T | ||
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