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Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data
Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data
There are plenty of moving pieces at the moment when it comes to assigning credit for various ups and downs in the bond market on any given day. Many of those can only be guessed at--or at the very least, debated--due to the uncertain eventual impact from economic policies that have yet to be fully understood or implemented. For example, some would say that bonds benefited from yesterday's news that Trump intends to take over Gaza, but others would say it was a non-event. One thing all bond watchers can agree on is that pedigree reports like ISM Services are highly likely to do logical things to bonds when they come in noticeably weaker or stronger than expected. Today's ISM data was weaker, including the price component. As such, it's no surprise to see an extension of the overnight rally just after the data, with the resulting trading levels lasting for most of the day.
MBS up just over an eighth of a point and 10yr down 5bps at 4.46
Gains continue after ISM data. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 8bps at 4.425.
Calmly holding best levels of the day. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down almost 9 bps at 4.419
Down just over an eighth from highs, but still much stronger with MBS up 10 ticks (.31) on the day. 10yr yields down 8.4bps at 4.421
Super Solid Momentum For Multiple Reasons
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 05 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/31 | 6.97% | 7.02% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 MBA Refi Index | Jan/31 | 584.3 | 520.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/31 | 156.7 | 162.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/31 | 224.8 | 220.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/31 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/31 | 2.2% | -2% | |
| 8:15AM | Jan ADP jobs (k) | Jan | 183K | 150K | 122K |
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Trade Gap (bl) | Dec | $-98.4B | $-96.6B | $-78.2B |
| 8:30AM | Dec Exports | Dec | $266.5B | $273.4B | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Imports | Dec | $364.9B | $351.6B | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Services PMI | Jan | 52.9 | 52.8 | 56.8 |
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Composite PMI | Jan | 52.7 | 52.4 | 55.4 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jan | 52.8 | 54.3 | 54.1 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Biz Activity | Jan | 54.5 | 58.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services Prices | Jan | 60.4 | 64.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services Employment | Jan | 52.3 | 51.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services New Orders | Jan | 51.3 | 54.2 | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/31 | 0.373M | 0.128M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/31 | -0.027M | -0.044M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/31 | 2.233M | 1.2M | 2.957M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/31 | -0.178M | 0.532M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/31 | -0.186M | 0.028M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/31 | -5.471M | -1.5M | -4.994M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/31 | 8.664M | 2.6M | 3.463M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/31 | -0.034M | 0.326M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/31 | 0.16M | -0.333M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.205% | 4.190% | ||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 7:30PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 06 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Jan Challenger layoffs (k) | Jan | 38.792K | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final | Q4 | 1.4% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/25 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/25 | 1870K | 1858K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/01 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/01 | 213K | 207K | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q4 | 3.4% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/01 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Feb/01 | 212.5K | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jan | 16.8M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/31 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/31 | -167Bcf | -321Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.240% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.250% | |||
| 12:00PM | Feb/06 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Feb/06 | 6.12% | ||
| 12:00PM | Feb/06 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Feb/06 | 6.95% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 3:30PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Feb/05 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Feb/05 | $6.82T | ||
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