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Paradoxical Rally Gets Logical After Retail Sales
Paradoxical Rally Gets Logical After Retail Sales
If yesterday's PPI-driven rally was a paradox, today's continuation was quite the opposite. While it's not the most reliable market mover among economic reports, Retail Sales can occasionally go big. Today was such an example. Including or excluding the auto sector, sales dropped at the fastest pace in just over year and missed forecasts by the widest margin in several years. That provided a clear mandate for bond traders to press the happy button, ultimately ushering yields to the lowest levels of the week.
Bond Rally Continues With Help From Retail Sales
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Feb 14 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jan Export prices mm (%) | Jan | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Import prices mm (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Export Prices YoY | Jan | 2.7% | 1.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales (%) | Jan | -0.9% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Import Prices YoY | Jan | 1.9% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | Jan | -0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales YoY | Jan | 4.2% | 3.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Jan | -0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jan | -0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 9:15AM | Jan Industrial Production (%) | Jan | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| 9:15AM | Jan Manufacturing Production YoY | Jan | 1% | 0% | |
| 9:15AM | Jan Industrial Production YoY | Jan | 2% | 0.5% | |
| 9:15AM | Jan Manufacturing Production MoM | Jan | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 9:15AM | Jan Capacity Utilization (%) | Jan | 77.8% | 77.7% | 77.6% |
| 10:00AM | Dec Business Inventories (% ) | Dec | -0.2% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Dec Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Dec | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 1:00PM | Feb/14 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Feb/14 | 588 | 586 | |
| 1:00PM | Feb/14 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Feb/14 | 481 | 480 | |
| 3:00PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| Monday, Feb 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Presidents Day | ||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Harker Speech | ||||
| 10:20AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 6:00PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
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