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Stabilizing After Early Weakness; Do Fed Minutes Matter?
Stabilizing After Early Weakness; Do Fed Minutes Matter?
Bonds extended yesterday's selling streak in the overnight session, but not in an alarming or serious way. Momentum reversed at 9am without any clear catalyst apart from the technical ceiling at 4.57% in 10yr yields. Yields have dropped a few bps since then to return to just-barely-stronger levels. The day's only notable calendar event is the release of FOMC Minutes at 2pm. Not to be confused with an actual Fed day, the minutes are simply a more detailed account of the Fed day 3 weeks ago. They can occasionally offer market-moving revelations, but it's hard to imagine what they could convey in the present environment that hasn't already been widely discussed by Powell and other speakers over the past 3 weeks.
Bonds Give Up Friday's Gains
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 19 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/14 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Feb/14 | 6.93% | 6.95% | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/14 MBA Mortgage Applications | Feb/14 | -6.6% | 2.3% | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/14 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/14 | 214.9 | 230.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/14 MBA Refi Index | Feb/14 | 593.6 | 640.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/14 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/14 | 144.0 | 153.1 | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jan | 1.366M | 1.4M | 1.499M |
| 8:30AM | Jan House starts mm: change (%) | Jan | -9.8% | 15.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Build permits: change mm (%) | Jan | 0.1% | -0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Building Permits (ml) | Jan | 1.483M | 1.46M | 1.482M |
| 8:55AM | Feb/15 Redbook yy (%) | Feb/15 | 6.3% | 5.3% | |
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs (%) | $50 million | |||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.215% | 4.230% | ||
| 1:00PM | 20-Year Bond Auction | 4.83% | 4.9% | ||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 4:30PM | Feb/14 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Feb/14 | 3.34M | 2.2M | 9.043M |
| 5:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Business Conditions | Feb | 27.8 | 46.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Business Index | Feb | 18.1 | 20 | 44.3 |
| 8:30AM | Feb/08 Continued Claims (ml) | Feb/08 | 1869K | 1870K | 1850K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/15 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/15 | 219K | 215K | 213K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/15 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Feb/15 | 215.25K | 216K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Feb | 14.00 | 39.00 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Employment | Feb | 5.3 | 11.9 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed New Orders | Feb | 21.9 | 42.9 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Prices Paid | Feb | 40.50 | 31.90 | |
| 9:35AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jan | -0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 10:30AM | Feb/14 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Feb/14 | -196Bcf | -188Bcf | -100Bcf |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.235% | 4.240% | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.245% | 4.250% | ||
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Feb/14 | -0.015M | 0.082M | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Feb/14 | -0.343M | 0.159M | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Feb/14 | -0.961M | -0.184M | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Feb/14 | -0.151M | 0.7M | -3.035M |
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/14 | 4.633M | 3M | 4.07M |
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Feb/14 | -0.156M | 0.18M | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Feb/14 | -2.051M | -1.2M | 0.135M |
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Feb/14 | 0.18M | -0.009M | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/14 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Feb/14 | 1.472M | 0.872M | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/20 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Feb/20 | 6.04% | 6.09% | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/20 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Feb/20 | 6.85% | 6.87% | |
| 12:05PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year TIPS Auction | 2.403% | 2.055% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 9 | |||
| 2:30PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Feb/19 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Feb/19 | $6.78T | $6.81T | |
| 5:00PM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
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