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Slow Start, No Data, But Holding Near 2025's Best Levels
Slow Start, No Data, But Holding Near 2025's Best Levels
After a strong finish last week, there was some natural risk that short-covering and position squaring added to the gains, thus increasing the chance of some weakness this morning. While that may have been the case at first, things are changing since the 9:30am NYSE open with stock losses once again spilling over to bond market buying. That's the only market mover in play so far this morning and there are no other major flashpoints on the calendar. While we will get more scheduled data in the coming days, none of it will be "top tier" until Friday morning's PCE data.
Modestly weaker overnight, but rallying back into positive territory now. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.416
Flat and calm near best levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.407
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Feb 24 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan National Activity Index | Jan | -0.03 | 0.15 | |
| 10:30AM | Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Feb | -8.3 | 14.1 | |
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.180% | 4.220% | ||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.195% | 4.225% | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 68 | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Year Note Auction | 4.169% | 4.211% | ||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| Tuesday, Feb 25 | |||||
| 4:20AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 8:55AM | Feb/22 Redbook yy (%) | Feb/22 | 6.3% | ||
| 9:00AM | Dec FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9:00AM | Dec FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Dec | 4.2% | ||
| 9:00AM | Dec House Price Index | Dec | 433.4 | ||
| 9:00AM | Dec CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Dec | -0.1% | ||
| 9:00AM | Dec Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Dec | 4.4% | 4.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Feb | 103 | 104.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Rich Fed comp. index | Feb | -2 | -4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Rich Fed manuf shipments | Feb | -9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb Rich Fed, services index | Feb | 4 | ||
| 10:30AM | Feb Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | Feb | 5.7 | ||
| 10:30AM | Feb Dallas Fed Services Index | Feb | 7.4 | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 75 | |||
| 11:45AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 5-Year Note Auction | 4.33% | |||
| 1:00PM | Jan Money Supply | Jan | $21.53T | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Feb/21 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Feb/21 | 3.34M | ||
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