|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
February 19th through March 3rd marked an exceptionally directional rally for bonds. The following day brought the big blow-up in German debt, and the start of the consolidation in US rates. Granted, if domestic economic data been weaker, the rally may have tried to soldier on, but after the jobs report came out near consensus, that was that. As has been the case for several years, the next major report after the jobs report is CPI, and CPI is arguably even more important at the moment. This isn't to say we're guaranteed to see a big reaction--only that the potential is there, should the data come in much higher or lower than forecast. As for today, it was just another in the ongoing consolidation with bonds determined to move back to the higher end of the recent sideways range after moving lower yesterday.
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Mar 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/07 | 154.6 | 144.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 MBA Refi Index | Mar/07 | 911.3 | 784.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/07 | 1.448M | 2M | 3.614M |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.175% | 4.180% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 4.310% | 4.632% | ||
| 2:00PM | Feb Federal budget, $ (bl) | Feb | $-307B | $-303.2B | $-129B |
| Thursday, Mar 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Producer Prices (%) | Feb | 0% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Feb | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Mar/01 Continued Claims (ml) | Mar/01 | 1870K | 1900K | 1897K |
| 8:30AM | Mar/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/08 | 220K | 225K | 221K |
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.623% | 4.748% | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
