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Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
February 19th through March 3rd marked an exceptionally directional rally for bonds. The following day brought the big blow-up in German debt, and the start of the consolidation in US rates. Granted, if domestic economic data been weaker, the rally may have tried to soldier on, but after the jobs report came out near consensus, that was that. As has been the case for several years, the next major report after the jobs report is CPI, and CPI is arguably even more important at the moment. This isn't to say we're guaranteed to see a big reaction--only that the potential is there, should the data come in much higher or lower than forecast. As for today, it was just another in the ongoing consolidation with bonds determined to move back to the higher end of the recent sideways range after moving lower yesterday.
Weaker overnight and mixed reaction to CPI (mostly ignored). MBS down 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.316
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Mar 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Mar/07 | 6.67% | 6.73% | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 MBA Mortgage Applications | Mar/07 | 11.2% | 20.4% | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/07 | 154.6 | 144.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/07 | 269.3 | 242.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 MBA Refi Index | Mar/07 | 911.3 | 784.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 8:30AM | Feb CPI index, nsa | Feb | 319.082 | 319.22 | 317.67 |
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core CPI index, sa | Feb | 319.775 | 319.086 | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Mar/07 | 0.503M | -0.054M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/07 | 1.448M | 2M | 3.614M |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Mar/07 | -0.078M | 0.464M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Mar/07 | -5.737M | -2M | -1.433M |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Mar/07 | -1.228M | 1.124M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Mar/07 | -1.559M | -1.3M | -1.318M |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Mar/07 | -0.113M | -0.587M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Mar/07 | -0.183M | -0.067M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Mar/07 | 0.321M | -0.346M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.175% | 4.180% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 4.310% | 4.632% | ||
| 2:00PM | Feb Federal budget, $ (bl) | Feb | $-307B | $-303.2B | $-129B |
| Thursday, Mar 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb PPI YoY | Feb | 3.3% | 3.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Producer Prices (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | Feb | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | Feb | 3.4% | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Feb | 3.6% | 3.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/08 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Mar/08 | 224.25K | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PPI | Feb | 147.716 | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar/01 Continued Claims (ml) | Mar/01 | 1900K | 1897K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/08 | 225K | 221K | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Mar/07 | -48Bcf | -80Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.220% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.230% | |||
| 12:00PM | Mar/13 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Mar/13 | 5.79% | ||
| 12:00PM | Mar/13 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Mar/13 | 6.63% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.748% | |||
| 4:30PM | Mar/12 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Mar/12 | $6.76T | ||
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