Why Aren't Bonds Happier About CPI?
Why Aren't Bonds Happier About CPI?
Today's CPI came in lower than expected. That would normally help bonds rally, but they didn't seem too eager to do that. One explanation is that the components of CPI that have a bearing on PCE suggest PCE will be higher than previously expected. While we don't usually see PCE move markets as much as CPI, that's because PCE is much easier to forecast after CPI and PPI come out. As far as the Fed is concerned, PCE has the final say when it comes to measuring progress toward 2% inflation. As such, if today's CPI says that PCE (2 weeks from now) looks like it will be higher than previously expected, the implication is for bond market weakness as opposed to strength.
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Mar 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/07 | 154.6 | 144.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/07 MBA Refi Index | Mar/07 | 911.3 | 784.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 10:30AM | Mar/07 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/07 | 1.448M | 2M | 3.614M |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.175% | 4.180% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 4.310% | 4.632% | ||
| 2:00PM | Feb Federal budget, $ (bl) | Feb | $-307B | $-303.2B | $-129B |
| Thursday, Mar 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Producer Prices (%) | Feb | 0% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Feb | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Mar/01 Continued Claims (ml) | Mar/01 | 1870K | 1900K | 1897K |
| 8:30AM | Mar/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/08 | 220K | 225K | 221K |
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.623% | 4.748% | ||
