Another Paradoxical Reaction to an Inflation Report
Another Paradoxical Reaction to an Inflation Report
For the 2nd month in a row, the market's reaction to a CPI/PPI report ended up being less about the report itself and more about its implications for the more highly regarded PCE inflation data. While we have to wait 2 weeks for official word on PCE, the CPI/PPI combination goes a long way toward revealing the outcome. In today's case, CPI suggested higher PCE inflation, so bonds ended up selling off, albeit modestly, despite core CPI coming in lower than expected. Thursday's PPI once again has the opportunity to punch above its typical weight for the same reason.
Another Paradoxical Reaction to an Inflation Report
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Mar 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Producer Prices (%) | Feb | 0% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Feb | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Mar/01 Continued Claims (ml) | Mar/01 | 1870K | 1900K | 1897K |
| 8:30AM | Mar/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/08 | 220K | 225K | 221K |
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.623% | 4.748% | ||
| Friday, Mar 14 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 57.9 | 63.1 | 64.7 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.9% | 3.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 63.5 | 65 | 65.7 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 4.9% | 4.3% | |
